Oil prices continue to face downward pressure amid rising supply concerns and weakening demand signals, while natural gas displays a bullish setup with support from key moving averages.
Crude Oil Faces Pressure Amid Rising Inventories and OPEC+ Uncertainty
WTI crude oil remains under bearish control as it trades below the critical $66 resistance level. As of Thursday, WTI prices hovered near $62.55, while Brent crude dropped to $64.60 per barrel. The decline follows fresh U.S. inventory data showing a sharp rise in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, sparking concerns about dwindling demand in the United States.
Further downside pressure came from Saudi Arabia, which cut crude prices for Asian buyers to the lowest in nearly four years. This move comes shortly after OPEC+ announced a production hike of 411,000 barrels per day for July, raising fears of oversupply.
Trade tensions are adding fuel to the bearish outlook. New U.S. tariffs on metals have triggered retaliatory responses and are expected to disrupt global trade. This uncertainty is dampening economic outlooks and weighing on oil demand forecasts.
🔍 WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Daily Chart:
WTI is consolidating below the $66 resistance and its 200-day SMA, indicating continued bearish momentum. Failure to reclaim the $66–$70 range could push prices toward $60 or lower.
4-Hour Chart:
A descending broadening wedge pattern has formed. Prices are ranging between $60 and $64, and a break below $60 could confirm further downside. A breakout above $67–$70 would shift sentiment toward bullish.
Natural Gas Holds Above Key Levels, Eyes $5 Target
Natural gas is showing clear signs of bullish momentum. Prices remain well-supported above the $3 level and have broken above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, signaling strong buyer interest.
Daily Chart:
Natural gas has entered an ascending channel and continues to climb with firm support from moving averages. A continuation of this trend could push prices toward the $5 mark.
4-Hour Chart:
The price is consolidating just below $3.80. A breakout above this resistance would open the door to $4.70. However, a drop below $3 could invalidate the bullish setup.
US Dollar Weakness Adds Support to Commodities
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure following multiple failed attempts to break above 100.65. As it trades below key support levels, weakness in the dollar could further support commodity prices like oil and gas.
DXY Daily Chart:
A continued slide below 98 could expose the 96 and 90 levels.
DXY 4-Hour Chart:
Bearish momentum remains strong, with the index stuck in a descending channel. All eyes are on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence dollar direction and, by extension, commodity prices.
📌 Conclusion
- Crude Oil remains under pressure due to oversupply concerns and geopolitical risks. Watch for key levels at $60 and $70.
- Natural Gas is in a bullish structure, supported by technical indicators and moving averages.
- US Dollar weakness could further enhance the bullish case for commodities.
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