Bitcoin just posted an unexpected surge—but is it the final phase of the bull cycle? New data from market cycles and key indicators suggest the top may be closer than many traders realize.
🚀 Bitcoin Breaks Above $110K: Is the Rally Real?
Bitcoin surprised markets with a 4% pump, breaking through short-term resistance at $109K and briefly touching $110K. While volume barely cleared its daily moving average, technical strength remains intact. The weekly RSI is now back above 70, reflecting strong bullish momentum. However, the lack of a breakout in weekly volume raises questions about the sustainability of this move.
A key warning: the TBT Stop Loss Hunting alert has triggered for 14 consecutive days, signaling heightened volatility ahead. The daily TBO and TBT Divergence indicators show limited conviction—leaving traders wondering whether this breakout is a trap or the start of something bigger.
🔄 60-Day Cycle Theory Points to $139K Target
According to renowned analyst Bob Loukas, Bitcoin completed its second 60-day cycle low on June 6. This could mark the beginning of another major upside phase. Fibonacci extension levels suggest a target around $139K, a potential 40% rally from current levels. A more aggressive projection hints at $173K, though current data doesn’t yet support such an extended move.
Loukas’ model implies Bitcoin may form a higher low next, followed by a blow-off top and the eventual conclusion of the cycle—typical behavior at the end of a bull market.
⚠️ Bear Market Warning: The TBO Signal Flashing Red
While short-term charts remain bullish, a longer-term red flag is emerging: the TBO Bear Formula. This bearish sequence—consisting of two TBO Close Shorts, a Red Cross Down, and an Open Short—has historically preceded major market tops since 2018.
Although a crash is not guaranteed, this pattern is a serious warning that the top may be near. While macro data and on-chain metrics remain supportive, the alignment of technical signals across timeframes points to growing risk.
📅 Historical Timing: Is the Cycle Top in October?
Time-based cycle models are converging on a critical window between September 15 and November 24, 2025. Whether you measure from the last bear market low or the 2024 halving, these models suggest we are deep into the final phase of the bull market.
The consistency in timing with past market cycles strengthens the probability that a major top could arrive within months—if not weeks.
🧠 Strategy Over Speculation: Prepare, Don’t Predict
The key to success now isn’t chasing lofty targets like $173K—it’s disciplined execution. Traders should:
- Lock in partial profits at target levels
- Tighten stop-losses to preserve capital
- Monitor Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and stablecoin inflows for signs of capital rotation into altcoins
Once BTC.D retreats and stablecoin dominance declines, altseason could begin. Until then, Bitcoin remains king.
🏁 Final Thoughts: This Is the Endgame
All signs suggest we’re nearing the final chapter of this bull cycle. But that doesn’t mean panic—it means opportunity. The coming weeks may offer some of the best risk-reward setups of the year.
✅ Stick to your plan
✅ Take profits wisely
✅ Protect your gains
Greed ends bull markets. Discipline secures your legacy.
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