Gold prices held firm near $3,346 per ounce in early Monday trading, as market participants weighed geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal concerns, and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. While the yellow metal slightly pulled back after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a delay on the 50% EU tariff to July 9, support remains strong amid ongoing macro pressures.
The Congressional Budget Office now projects a $4 trillion increase in U.S. federal debt over the next decade—fueled by persistent deficits and rising entitlements. This has dragged the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to a one-month low, indirectly boosting gold’s appeal as a store of value in a weakening-dollar, low-rate environment.
⚪ Silver Market Moves: XAG/USD Climbs Towards $33.70 Resistance
Silver prices mirrored gold’s trend, trading around $33.54 per ounce, with strong tailwinds from Fed rate cut bets and a softer dollar. Futures markets are now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, following slowing inflation and subdued U.S. growth.
XAG’s bullish structure remains intact, but eyes are locked on the $33.70 resistance zone, a critical level that could unlock further upside potential.
🔍 Investor Focus: Fed Minutes, PCE Inflation, and GDP Data in Spotlight
This week’s key economic catalysts include:
- Durable Goods Orders (Thursday)
- Preliminary Q1 GDP (Thursday)
- Core PCE Price Index (Friday)
All eyes will also be on the FOMC minutes, expected to provide clarity on the Fed’s path forward. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has warned of stagflation risks if trade frictions persist—adding fuel to the gold bull case.
🌍 Geopolitical Uncertainty Adds Tailwind to Precious Metals
While tariff delays eased immediate concerns, underlying geopolitical risks—from Eastern Europe to the Middle East—continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Investors remain cautious as global tensions could escalate unexpectedly, keeping gold and silver in strong demand.
📈 Gold Technical Forecast: Watch $3,366 for Bullish Breakout
- Current Price: $3,346
- Immediate Resistance: $3,366.62
- Support Zones: $3,332.97 → $3,309 → $3,278
- Next Bullish Target: $3,408.57
The gold chart reflects a rising channel with firm support from the 50 and 200 EMA. However, candlestick indecision near resistance suggests consolidation. A breakout above $3,366 could spark bullish momentum, while failure to hold $3,332 might lead to a technical dip.
📉 Silver Technical Forecast: Bulls Defend $33.36 as Key Resistance Nears
- Current Price: $33.54
- Resistance: $33.70 → $34.04
- Support: $33.36 → $33.14 → $32.80
XAG/USD continues to follow a steady uptrend, with strong EMA support. But with multiple Doji candles forming, price action hints at hesitation. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakout above $33.70 for bullish continuation or monitor a drop below $33.36 for a corrective move.
🔚 Outlook Summary: Gold and Silver Stay Supported Amid Macro Uncertainty
With market focus shifting toward Fed rate decisions, economic data, and global tensions, both gold and silver remain fundamentally supported. While gold consolidates near key resistance, silver tests breakout levels that could define short-term trends.
👉 Watch for volatility ahead of PCE and GDP releases later this week.
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