The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) pair continued its upward momentum on Monday, climbing near 1.3850 during Asian trading hours. This marks the sixth straight session of gains, supported by renewed pressure on both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) to ease monetary policy following disappointing labor market data.
US Dollar Gains but Faces Fed Rate Cut Pressure
On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by just 22,000 jobs in August, well below the market forecast of 75,000. July’s figures were revised slightly higher to 79,000 from 73,000. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, up from 4.2% previously.
The softer employment report strengthened market bets on Fed easing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now see a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, compared to 86% a week ago. There is also rising speculation about a possible 50 bps cut, which could limit the Greenback’s upside in the coming weeks.
Canadian Dollar Pressured by Weak Jobs Data
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) came under renewed pressure after Canada’s August labor report showed steep job losses. Employment fell by 65,500 positions, compared with expectations for a gain of 7,500 jobs. This followed July’s drop of 40,800 jobs, signaling deepening weakness in the labor market.
The Canadian unemployment rate jumped to 7.1%, higher than both the prior 6.9% and the market forecast of 7.0%. The back-to-back weak employment data reinforced expectations that the BoC may be forced to deliver additional rate cuts before year-end to cushion the economy.
Outlook for USD/CAD
The USD/CAD pair is benefiting from weakness on both sides of the border, though upside momentum may be capped if the Fed takes a more aggressive easing path than the BoC. Traders will now shift focus to upcoming US economic data, including ISM Services PMI and this week’s broader labor market reports, which could provide further direction.
For the Canadian Dollar, the trajectory will depend on how quickly the BoC signals policy adjustments amid rising unemployment and slowing economic activity.
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