📊 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Rebounds on Legislative Progress, But Bearish Trend Intact
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posted a modest rebound Thursday following three straight days of losses. The recovery came after the House passed President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, a move that offered short-term support to the greenback.
However, the broader trend remains bearish as the DXY trades below key moving averages, with structural concerns still dominating sentiment. The legislation is expected to add nearly $4 trillion to the U.S. debt load, which has rattled bond markets and spurred a weak 20-year Treasury auction—further eroding investor confidence.
| DXY Key Levels |
|---|
| Resistance: 100.32 → 100.48 |
| Support: 99.33 → 98.94 |
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🇪🇺 EUR/USD Forecast: Trend Holds Despite PMI Weakness
EUR/USD continues to hold above key moving averages, confirming an ongoing uptrend, even as Eurozone PMI data reflected contracting business activity.
Support from weak U.S. data, soft Treasury demand, and fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. has kept the euro resilient despite mixed fundamentals.
| EUR/USD Key Levels |
|---|
| Resistance: 1.1328 → 1.1374 |
| Support: 1.1235 → 1.1222 |
The euro remains firm while the dollar’s recovery struggles to gain momentum.
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🇬🇧 GBP/USD Outlook: Sticky Inflation Supports Sterling Strength
GBP/USD continues its climb, buoyed by persistent UK inflation, which has reduced expectations for near-term Bank of England rate cuts. The pair trades comfortably above moving averages, with a steady uptrend intact.
Meanwhile, investor caution around U.S. fiscal risks, post-tax bill approval, has limited dollar upside.
| GBP/USD Key Levels |
|---|
| Resistance: 1.3478 → 1.3536 |
| Support: 1.3346 → 1.3327 |
With UK inflation data remaining hot, the pound retains a bullish edge.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD Forecast: Loonie Gains on Oil Stability, Budget Strength
USD/CAD remains under pressure, extending its downtrend as oil prices stabilize and Canada’s fiscal outlook remains more stable compared to the U.S. The pair has failed to regain moving average support, with traders leaning bearish on the greenback amid deepening deficit fears.
| USD/CAD Key Levels |
|---|
| Resistance: 1.3885 → 1.3929 |
| Support: 1.3824 → 1.3760 |
Canadian dollar strength reflects economic stability and relative optimism compared to the U.S. backdrop.
🇯🇵 USD/JPY Analysis: Rebound Capped, Bearish Trend Holds
The USD/JPY pair continues to struggle below resistance, with gains limited despite a pause in U.S. yield declines. The 144–146 range remains a barrier as markets monitor possible BoJ intervention amid growing yen volatility.
Support remains vulnerable as U.S. debt concerns and rate expectations weigh on the greenback.
| USD/JPY Key Levels |
|---|
| Resistance: 145.50 → 146.60 |
| Support: 143.03 → 142.80 |
USD/JPY’s downside risk persists unless key resistance levels are breached.
🔎 Summary: Dollar Recovers, But Risks Remain Across Majors
| Pair | Trend | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | Bullish | Weak DXY, resilient structure |
| GBP/USD | Bullish | UK inflation, dovish Fed outlook |
| USD/CAD | Bearish | Oil stability, stronger CAD fundamentals |
| USD/JPY | Bearish | BoJ vigilance, capped U.S. yield rebound |
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