Key Takeaways:
- AUD/USD faces persistent pressure as a dovish RBA and economic uncertainties weigh on the Australian Dollar.
- NZD/USD sees a breakdown below key support, continuing its downward move.
- USD/JPY moves sideways, but a head and shoulders pattern near 151 hints at further bearish risk.
AUD/USD: Bearish Sentiment Deepens Amid Rate Divergence and China Slowdown
The AUD/USD pair continues its downward trend, marking a fresh three-week low, as the Australian Dollar faces pressure from both domestic and global factors. The US Dollar continues to gain strength, fueled by inflation concerns after the US Producer Price Index (PPI) surged, and weak performance in the equity markets boosted its appeal as a safe haven.
Additionally, US Federal Reserve tightening expectations have added to the bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair. Recent data indicates that inflation remains high in the US, reducing market expectations of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September. In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a dovish stance. The RBA’s recent rate cut and downbeat economic forecast, predicting a slower growth of just 1.7% for 2025, have led markets to expect further rate reductions by the end of the year.
Geopolitical risks, including ongoing tensions around the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have compounded the bearish sentiment. Although US President Trump has suggested peace talks with Russian President Putin, the Ukraine war persists, maintaining volatility in the market. The AUD/USD is highly sensitive to such risks, as Australia’s close trade ties with China have been negatively impacted by geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns.
Technical Outlook for AUD/USD:
On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD is trading below the 0.6440 level, having broken through a key support zone. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern near the 0.6550 resistance further strengthens the bearish outlook. A breakdown below the 0.6380 support could lead to further losses, with the next target being 0.6320. However, the pair is oversold, making a short-term rebound possible. A breakout above 0.6550 would shift the sentiment towards a bullish outlook.
NZD/USD: Downtrend Continues, Support Levels in Focus
The NZD/USD pair has also experienced a breakdown below key support levels. NZD/USD fell below 0.5870 and remains under pressure, reflecting weaker short-term momentum and broader market sentiment.
The 4-hour chart for NZD/USD shows the pair continuing its downward movement after breaking the critical support of 0.5870. Currently oversold, NZD/USD is likely to face a rebound once the downward move completes. Strong support lies between the 0.55 and 0.56 zones, which could trigger a recovery towards 0.6140. However, as long as the price stays below 0.5970, the overall bias remains bearish.
USD/JPY: Bearish Patterns Emerge with Key Technical Levels in Play
The USD/JPY pair has been moving sideways, stuck between 140 and 151. While it has failed to break above the 151 level, a head and shoulders pattern is forming near this resistance, with a neckline around 146. A break below 146 could trigger a substantial move lower towards 142.
This technical setup suggests that USD/JPY may experience further downside pressure, especially if the pair fails to sustain momentum above 151. The FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium will be key factors to watch for further clues on the future direction of the USD. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel further upside in the USD/JPY pair, but for now, bearish patterns dominate the outlook.
Key Levels to Watch for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY:
- AUD/USD: Watch for a break below 0.6380 to target 0.6320, with the potential for a rebound if the price stabilizes above 0.6440.
- NZD/USD: The pair is oversold, and 0.5870 remains the key support. A break below this could open the door to further downside toward 0.55-0.56 levels.
- USD/JPY: A break below 146 could open the downside towards 142. A sustained move above 151 would target the 149.00 psychological level.
Market Outlook:
With geopolitical uncertainties, central bank policy divergence, and weak economic data continuing to influence currency markets, traders are advised to remain cautious. The US Dollar remains strong, supported by inflation data and expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar face additional pressure from geopolitical developments and slowing economic growth in their key trading partners, especially China.
The coming days will be critical for determining the next direction in these pairs, as traders focus on global economic data, especially from the Fed and Jackson Hole Symposium. AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/JPY all face key technical levels that could signal the next major move in their respective trends.
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