Key Highlights:
- Silver eyes $37.32 as markets brace for Trump’s tariff deadline and FOMC minutes.
- Dovish Fed expectations and dollar weakness may drive renewed bullish momentum.
- Thin holiday volume, looming supply deficits, and trade tensions support further upside.
Tariffs Could Be Silver’s Catalyst
Silver enters a critical week as traders watch for potential fallout from President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. His threats of 10–50% tariffs on key trade partners — following last week’s 20% levy on Vietnamese goods — have raised concerns of industrial disruption.
Given silver’s heavy use in electronics and solar, broader trade restrictions could trigger preemptive inventory hoarding, driving up physical demand and accelerating price gains.
Fed Minutes May Reinforce Rate Cut Bets
All eyes turn to Wednesday’s Fed minutes. With markets pricing a 91.5% chance of a September rate cut and Goldman Sachs now expecting three this year, dovish confirmation could spark a deeper selloff in the US dollar. Trump’s push for 1% interest rates adds pressure for further easing.
For silver, this environment is ideal — lower yields reduce the cost of holding non-yielding metals, while a weaker dollar boosts foreign demand.
Dollar Drop Sets Bullish Stage
The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide, losing 0.64% against the yen and 0.33% against the Swiss franc last week — its weakest levels since early 2022. This trend benefits silver, especially in periods of global economic uncertainty when capital flows into safe havens with industrial value.
Fiscal Spending and Industrial Demand Add Fuel
A $3.9 trillion US spending plan, extending tax cuts and adding debt, supports silver both as a fiscal hedge and industrial input — especially as green energy and infrastructure investment rises.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Breakout In Sight
Silver has broken above $36.30 and retested $36.84, maintaining bullish structure as it targets the $37.32 multi-year high. A dovish Fed and escalation in trade tensions could ignite a breakout.
However, any softening on tariffs or surprise hawkish tilt in Fed tone may trigger a brief pullback — likely viewed as a buying opportunity in an otherwise bullish trend.
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