Crude oil prices plunged as US-Iran tensions cooled following President Trump’s ceasefire announcement, while natural gas maintains bullish momentum amid strong technical support.
Crude Oil Drops After Controlled Escalation and Ceasefire News
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell sharply on Monday after a volatile session triggered by Iran’s missile strikes on a US military base in Qatar. Despite the attack, oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz remained unaffected, calming fears of an immediate supply shock.
Brent and WTI crude both sank over 7%, recording the steepest one-day losses since 2022. The market interpreted Iran’s retaliation as symbolic, avoiding disruption to critical shipping lanes. The sell-off intensified after President Trump confirmed a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, temporarily removing the geopolitical risk premium from oil markets.
However, analysts caution that volatility could return if the truce falters or further strikes emerge, especially near oil transit routes.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Daily Chart – High Volatility Between $65 and $77
WTI crude has struggled to break above resistance near $77, marked by a key trendline. After testing this level, prices retreated toward $65, a crucial support zone. If bulls manage a breakout above $77, it could open the door toward the $84 area and potentially ignite a broader uptrend. For now, the price remains volatile in the $65–$77 band.
4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge in Play
A descending broadening wedge is evident on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a possible bullish breakout if prices close above $77. Short-term support is seen near $65, and a failure to hold this level could signal further weakness.
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Daily Chart – Bullish Momentum Above $3.00
Natural gas continues to trade above the key $3.00 level, supported by the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. A cup and handle pattern has formed, followed by consolidation in an ascending channel, suggesting sustained upward momentum. A decisive break above $4.00 could fuel a rally toward $5.00.
4-Hour Chart – Sideways Consolidation
Natural gas is currently consolidating between $3.00 and $4.70. A breakout above $4.70 could accelerate gains, while a drop below $3.00 would indicate a shift toward bearish pressure.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook
Daily Chart – Bearish Bias Intensifies
The US Dollar Index is under pressure as it hovers around the 50-day SMA. If it breaks below the 98.00 mark, a larger correction toward the 90.00 level may unfold. The RSI trending below 50 also supports the bearish case.
4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel Pattern
The index remains trapped within a descending channel, with resistance at 99.00 capping upside attempts. A breakdown below 96.00 could lead to further weakness, targeting the 95.00 support area.
Key Takeaways
✅ WTI crude is facing strong resistance at $77, with $65 acting as a critical support zone.
✅ Natural gas maintains bullish structure above $3.00, eyeing $4.00 and $5.00 upside targets.
✅ US Dollar Index shows weakness, which may support commodity prices in the near term.
✅ Ceasefire between Iran and Israel has eased oil supply fears – but risks remain if peace unravels.
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