When it comes to technical analysis, every forex trader wants to know: Which indicator delivers the best results?
After all, the real value of a technical indicator lies in its ability to consistently generate profits, not just decorate your trading charts.
To answer this question, we conducted a comprehensive 5-year backtest on some of the most widely used technical indicators using the EUR/USD daily chart. The results might surprise you.
🔬 Backtest Parameters
Here’s how we structured the backtest:
- Instrument: EUR/USD (Daily timeframe)
- Duration: 5 years
- Position Size: 1 standard lot (100,000 units)
- Capital: Hypothetical $100,000 account
- Strategy: Reverse the position when an opposite signal appears (no SL/TP used — for illustration only)
| Indicator | Settings | Entry Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Bollinger Bands | (30,2,2) | Buy: Close below lower band, Sell: Close above upper band |
| MACD | (12,26,9) | Buy: MACD crosses above Signal, Sell: MACD crosses below Signal |
| Parabolic SAR | (.02,.02,.2) | Buy: Close crosses above SAR, Sell: Close crosses below SAR |
| Stochastic Oscillator | (14,3,3) | Buy: Cross above 20, Sell: Cross below 80 |
| RSI | (9) | Buy: Cross above 30, Sell: Cross below 70 |
| Ichimoku Kinko Hyo | (9,26,52,1) | Buy: Conversion line crosses above baseline, Sell: Cross below baseline |
📊 Backtest Results
| Strategy | No. of Trades | Net Pips | Return (%) | Max Drawdown (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy & Hold | 1 | -3,416.66 | -3.42% | 25.44% |
| Bollinger Bands | 20 | -19,535.97 | -19.54% | 37.99% |
| MACD | 110 | +3,937.67 | +3.94% | 27.55% |
| Parabolic SAR | 128 | -9,746.29 | -9.75% | 21.96% |
| Stochastic | 74 | -20,716.40 | -20.72% | 30.64% |
| RSI | 8 | -18,716.69 | -18.72% | 34.57% |
| Ichimoku Kinko Hyo | 53 | +30,341.22 | +30.34% | 19.51% |
🥇 Which Forex Indicator Performed Best?
According to the test results, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo clearly outperformed all other indicators. It generated a 30.34% return over 5 years, averaging just over 6% per year with the lowest drawdown among the group.
❗ But Don’t Rely on One Indicator Alone
Even though Ichimoku showed strong standalone performance, no single indicator should be used in isolation. Indicators often generate false signals or lag behind real price action. In fact, most other indicators in the test resulted in negative returns and significant drawdowns.
🧠 Final Takeaway
Forex trading isn’t about finding the “one magic indicator.” Just like a skilled martial artist uses a combination of techniques, successful traders use a blend of indicators, tools, and price action strategies to improve accuracy and manage risk.
📌 Use indicators to complement each other, not to replace sound trading judgment.
Want to dive deeper into technical indicators and build your trading strategy? Keep exploring our Forex Education section for full guides on Ichimoku, RSI, MACD, and more!