Global precious metals are experiencing a significant bull run, and according to the latest World Bank analysis, the trend is far from over. In its updated forecast, the World Bank projects gold, silver, and platinum prices to remain elevated through 2026, fueled by ongoing geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment.
Gold Eyes Record-Breaking Average in 2025
Gold has already risen nearly 25% in the first half of 2025, approaching historic highs. This surge is largely attributed to a wave of geopolitical flashpoints and a sharp rise in policy-related uncertainty, which has prompted investors to pour into safe-haven assets.
The World Bank’s report, authored by Senior Economist Jeetendra Khadan and Analyst Kaltrina Temaj, highlights the renewed strength in gold ETFs and robust central bank buying as key drivers of this momentum. Investment demand is now at its highest level since 2022.
The report forecasts that gold prices could increase by 35% year-over-year in 2025, with only a slight decline expected in 2026 as global tensions stabilize. However, prices are still likely to remain over 150% above the 2015–2019 average well into 2026.
“The balance of risk remains tilted to the upside,” noted the analysts. “Unexpected flare-ups in global conflict or economic instability could drive gold prices even higher.”
Silver Maintains Uptrend with Dual Demand Support
Silver has built on its impressive 2024 rally, gaining nearly 20% in the first half of 2025. Despite this, the gold-to-silver ratio continues to rise, underlining gold’s stronger role as a crisis hedge.
However, silver’s industrial demand—from sectors like solar, electronics, and green tech—combined with its safe-haven appeal, makes it unique among precious metals.
The World Bank anticipates a 17% rise in silver prices this year, with another 3% gain in 2026. Supply will increase modestly due to higher mine output, but recycling is expected to remain flat, limiting overall growth on the supply side.
Platinum Soars as Supply Tightens Despite Demand Weakness
Platinum joined the rally with a 30% surge in early 2025, hitting its highest levels in more than a decade. The primary catalyst is a sharp contraction in mine production, pushing output to a five-year low. Although recycling may rise slightly, it will not be enough to offset tightening supply.
On the demand side, the picture is mixed. Industrial and automotive usage—which together represent over two-thirds of global demand—are expected to decline. Still, the supply squeeze is expected to push prices up by 10% this year, with a modest 2% rise projected for 2026.
Outlook: Highs Likely, But Watch for Surprises
The World Bank concludes that gold is on course to set a new record annual average price in 2025, while silver will benefit from resilient industrial demand. Platinum’s rally is expected to continue on the back of structural supply shortages.
However, the report warns that intensifying global conflict could push gold well beyond current expectations, while weaker manufacturing activity could temper demand for silver and platinum, leading to downside risk for those metals.
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