Gold prices (XAU/USD) are trading under pressure early in the week, holding below last week’s highs as mixed market signals cap the metal’s recent rally. After three straight days of gains, the precious metal is now facing mild selling interest, largely due to a slight rebound in the US Dollar.
Despite last Friday’s disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the greenback is regaining ground, limiting gold’s upside. However, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September are likely to keep gold supported in the near term. Uncertainty around global trade policies and the upcoming ISM Services PMI release could further influence sentiment.
🔎 Market Drivers: What’s Moving Gold Prices?
- Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise Sharply:
The US jobs report showed a major miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to May and June. This has pushed the odds of a September Fed rate cut to over 90%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. - Factory Orders Slump:
US factory orders dropped 4.8% in June, deepening concerns over economic growth and reinforcing the case for monetary easing. These developments tend to support safe-haven assets like gold. - Tariff Tensions Escalate:
President Trump’s latest executive order increased tariffs on dozens of countries, raising the average US tariff rate to levels not seen since the 1930s. The move is keeping global markets uneasy, further bolstering safe-haven demand. - USD Attempts Recovery:
The Dollar Index has partially rebounded after Friday’s sharp decline, putting some pressure on gold. Still, unless the dollar gains strong momentum, gold may continue to benefit from rate cut speculation and risk aversion.
📉 Technical Outlook: Support & Resistance Levels
- Immediate Support:
Gold has initial support near *\$3,366–3,365, just above the 200-SMA on the 4-hour chart. A break below this could drag prices toward **\$3,350–3,349, and possibly **\$3,325–3,322, before testing the *\$3,300 psychological zone. - Key Resistance:
On the upside, gold faces resistance near *\$3,385, followed by the *\$3,400 level. A breakout here could open the door to *\$3,434–3,435, with potential for a retest of the *all-time high at \$3,500. - Momentum Indicators:
Technical oscillators remain in bullish territory across 4H and daily timeframes, suggesting buyers still have the upper hand—especially if support levels hold.
📅 What to Watch Next:
- US ISM Services PMI:
Scheduled for release later today, this data could further shift Fed expectations and USD sentiment. - Fed Policy Signals:
Any fresh commentary from policymakers may reinforce or counter current rate cut projections. - Global Trade Developments:
Any escalation or resolution in trade tensions—especially involving China—could quickly tilt gold prices in either direction.
Conclusion:
Gold remains in a consolidative phase, facing near-term resistance but supported by dovish Fed expectations and rising global uncertainty. While USD strength is limiting further upside for now, the broader outlook still favors gold bulls—especially if data continues to support the case for easing.
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