Global stock markets remained range-bound on Tuesday, while the US dollar continued to lose ground—on track for its sharpest monthly drop in years—as investors brace for the impact of the escalating US-China trade standoff on corporate earnings and upcoming economic data.
🔻 US Dollar Pressured as Trade Tensions Rise
The US dollar edged lower after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remarked that it’s “up to China to de-escalate” trade tariffs, with most US exports to China still facing a punitive 125% tariff. Despite a modest recovery in the S&P 500 index from early-April losses, the dollar has failed to stage a meaningful rebound.
- EUR/USD rallied to $1.1409, on track for a massive 5% monthly gain—its strongest in nearly 15 years.
- USD/CHF slipped further, with the dollar down 7% against the Swiss franc—its steepest monthly drop in a decade.
📉 Stocks Lack Direction, Await Key Data
- S&P 500 Futures were up 0.14%, while Nikkei Futures gained 0.38%.
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, while mainland China’s blue-chip CSI 300 fell 0.2%.
- JP Morgan analysts warned of weakening resilience in hard data, noting a 42% drop in China’s shipments to the US over the last 10 days, a sign that supply chain stress may soon intensify.
🛢️ Commodities React to Weak Dollar
- Gold surged to $3,333/oz, up nearly 7% in April and 27% year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand.
- Brent crude oil dipped slightly to $65.68 per barrel, with traders awaiting signals on future US-China trade negotiations.
🗳️ Other Global Headlines
- Canada Election 2025: The Liberal Party is expected to win re-election amid rising nationalism and concerns over US interference.
- European Inflation: Key CPI readings from Spain and Belgium are due today.
- Iberian Blackout: Power is gradually being restored after a massive grid failure in Spain and Portugal.
💼 Earnings Watch
Investors are watching closely as several financial and tech giants report this week:
- Reporting Today: HSBC, BP, Deutsche Bank, Adidas, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Visa.
- Later This Week: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms.
🧠 What to Watch
- US GDP (Q1) estimate
- US PCE Inflation (March)
- Nonfarm Payrolls (April)
- Any fresh tariff announcements or Fed commentary
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