The EUR/USD pair extended its losing streak to a fourth consecutive day on Monday, sliding below the key 1.0800 support level as market sentiment wavers amid mixed economic data and persistent tariff concerns. The cautious mood was slightly lifted by US President Donald Trump’s indication of possible tariff exemptions, but eurozone business confidence remains fragile, adding downward pressure on the Euro.
Weak EU Business Confidence Dents Euro
The latest PMI data from the eurozone showed a mixed picture. While the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 48.7, it remained in contraction territory, signaling continued weakness in the industrial sector. The Services PMI slipped to 50.4, missing expectations of a rebound to 51.0 and highlighting stagnating growth in the broader economy.
These disappointing figures weighed on the euro as investors remain concerned about the region’s fragile recovery, especially with high borrowing costs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
US Data Shows Resilience, But Tariff Jitters Persist
Across the Atlantic, US PMI data also showed a split performance. The Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8, dipping back into contraction territory as businesses brace for supply chain disruptions due to impending tariffs. However, the Services PMI climbed to 54.3, its highest level in three months, reflecting optimism among service-based businesses that they can pass on tariff-related costs to consumers.
Despite these mixed results, the US Dollar remained under modest pressure due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease policy later this year if economic data continues to soften.
Tariff Headlines Drive Volatility in EUR/USD
Global markets continue to closely monitor developments around US tariff policies. President Trump’s recent comments hinted at potential tariff exemptions, which provided a temporary boost to investor confidence. However, the lack of clarity keeps traders cautious, and any further escalation or reversal could reignite volatility in the currency markets.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook – Bearish Bias Builds Below 1.0800
The EUR/USD pair has dropped from recent highs near 1.0950 and is now testing the psychological 1.0800 handle. The pair remains well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0675, but momentum indicators suggest increasing bearish pressure.
If the pair fails to hold above 1.0800, further support is seen at 1.0750 and 1.0675. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.0880, followed by 1.0950.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch on EUR/USD:
- Support: 1.0800, 1.0750, 1.0675 (200-day EMA)
- Resistance: 1.0880, 1.0950
📅 Upcoming Economic Events to Watch:
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data – Friday
- Ongoing updates on US tariff announcements and Eurozone fiscal developments
Conclusion:
The EUR/USD pair remains vulnerable in the short term as eurozone business sentiment deteriorates and global trade tensions persist. However, the broader trend will depend heavily on incoming data and central bank guidance. Traders should closely monitor geopolitical developments and key economic indicators to navigate the next move in the EUR/USD pair.
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