Bitcoin Eyes Key Resistance After Rebound—Trend Reversal or Just a Temporary Relief?

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering near $82,000 on Thursday after rebounding sharply from weekly lows, sparking debate among traders: Is this a genuine reversal—or merely a classic dead-cat bounce?

Crypto Markets Breathe as Trump Pauses Trade Tariffs

The recent bounce in BTC came on the heels of a market-wide rally triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s surprise 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for non-retaliating nations. This political pivot eased investor anxiety and helped lift Bitcoin from a fresh 2025 low of $74,508 hit earlier in the week.

BTC surged over 8% on Wednesday, briefly touching $83,588 before settling near $82,600. That rebound triggered $589 million in liquidations across crypto, with $374 million wiped from short positions alone, according to data from Coinglass.

ETF Outflows Signal Waning Institutional Confidence

Despite the price surge, the appetite from institutional investors appears to be dwindling. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $127.12 million on Wednesday, pushing the week’s total outflows past $562 million, as per SoSoValue data. This pullback suggests large players are cautious, even amid bullish technical setups.

Glassnode Report Hints at Possible Seller Fatigue

On-chain analytics from Glassnode paint a more nuanced picture. While realized losses have mounted—peaking at $240 million in a 6-hour window—the intensity of selling has gradually diminished. This pattern often signals that a phase of seller exhaustion is forming, which could pave the way for price stability in the short term.

Analysts also identify the $65,000–$71,000 region as a critical long-term support zone. A breakdown below this could deal a blow to investor confidence, especially as most active wallets would be holding BTC at a loss.

BTC Technical Outlook: Bounce or Breakout?

As of Thursday, Bitcoin is trading around $82,000, facing two potential paths:

Scenario 1: The Dead Cat Bounce

BTC’s rejection from the $85,000 resistance earlier this month still looms large. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 47, sloping downward after failing to clear the neutral 50 zone—an indication that bearish momentum might return. A decisive move lower could see BTC retest support at $73,072, and potentially even revisit its YTD low.

Scenario 2: The Breakout Play

On the bullish side, if Bitcoin can build on Wednesday’s momentum and breach the confluence zone of resistance at $85,000—where a descending trendline and the 200-day EMA converge—it may unlock the next leg up. A clean breakout above that could see BTC targeting the psychological $90,000 handle and possibly the March high of $95,000.

Macro Factors to Watch

Aside from technical cues, traders are keeping an eye on macro variables like a weakening Chinese Yuan, which could spark increased capital flight into crypto as a hedge. Historically, such currency pressure has buoyed Bitcoin.

Bottom Line:
Bitcoin’s near-term direction hinges on how it navigates the $85,000 resistance zone. Whether bulls are ready to break free or if this is just a relief rally in a broader downtrend remains to be seen—but for now, traders are bracing for a pivotal move.

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