Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade sideways, but according to the Elliott Wave (EW) framework, this pause is simply a brief consolidation before the next upward breakout. The long-term bullish outlook remains intact, with an interim price target of $136,000 and a larger objective of $164,000 still in sight by the end of 2025.
Elliott Wave Outlook: Bullish Structure Still Intact
In our previous analysis shared nearly a month ago when BTC was near $107,250, we highlighted the ongoing wave structure using Elliott Wave principles. At the time, we identified the rally from the June 22 low as Wave i, followed by a corrective pullback (Wave ii), presenting a key buying opportunity ahead of the major uptrend.
That scenario played out as expected. Wave i peaked on June 25 at $108,196, and BTC then retraced to $105,143, completing Wave ii. Since then, the current upward movement has developed into Wave iii, reaching a recent high of $123,220 on July 14.
This structure confirms that Bitcoin is mid-way through a classic five-wave impulse sequence. With Wave iii in progress, the market is now in a short-term Wave iv correction—an expected pause before the final push of Wave v toward $136,000.
Bull Flag Setup Targets $136K
Technical analysis also supports this bullish continuation. A clear bull flag pattern has been forming, with price consolidating between descending trendlines. A breakout above this range would likely propel BTC toward the $136K mark—precisely aligned with the 100% Fibonacci extension of Wave 1, projected from the June 22 low.
The setup represents a textbook 3rd wave extension within a 5-wave impulse move, suggesting the breakout potential remains strong as long as support holds.
Final Legs Still to Come: $164K+ Target in Sight
Bitcoin’s current wave count from the Wave ii bottom still shows only four sub-waves completed, indicating that one more leg higher is required to complete Wave iii. That move would mark the orange Wave 5 of the gray Wave iii, pushing prices toward the $136K region.
Beyond that, the broader outlook remains firmly bullish. If the full Elliott Wave structure plays out through the remainder of the year, Bitcoin could hit a Fibonacci-based target of $164,913—based on the 176.4% extension level—and possibly even extend toward $216,000 in an ideal bullish scenario.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin remains in a bullish Elliott Wave cycle.
- Current consolidation is likely Wave iv before a breakout to $136K.
- Overall year-end targets remain between $164K and $216K.
- Technicals support the next surge with a confirmed bull flag breakout pending.
Traders and investors should watch for the completion of the current corrective phase. Once Wave iv concludes, the next impulsive move could take Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
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