Ripple’s XRP at a Crossroads: Futures Market Bearish, but Long-Term Holders Stay Confident

Key Highlights:

• XRP futures show heightened bearish sentiment, with open interest dropping 33% since early February.
• Despite negative funding rates, long-term XRP holders remain in profit, averaging 233% gains.
• XRP struggles to maintain key support levels, with eyes on a potential bullish breakout if resistance at $2.72 is breached.

Bearish Trends in XRP Futures Despite Resilient Holders

Ripple’s XRP faced a 1% decline on Tuesday, mirroring the cautious sentiment in the broader crypto market. However, while futures data indicates growing bearish pressure, long-term investors continue to show resilience.

According to Coinglass data, XRP’s open interest (OI) in the futures market has plummeted by 33% between February 1 and March 18, signaling reduced risk appetite among traders. The persistent negative funding rates suggest more short positions, as traders speculate further downside in the market.

Despite this, XRP’s price has held up better than Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL), even managing a 3% weekly gain. The 233% average gains among long-term holders, as tracked by Santiment, indicate that many investors are still comfortably in profit, reducing sell pressure.

Legal Uncertainty & Market Sentiment: A Key Catalyst

A potential resolution in the SEC vs Ripple lawsuit remains a crucial wildcard. Recent reports suggest both parties are nearing an agreement, which could act as a major bullish trigger.

The Dormant Circulation metric highlights that most XRP sales come from recently active coins rather than old holdings, indicating that many long-term investors remain patient.

Technical Analysis: Can XRP Maintain Key Support?

XRP saw $7.4 million in futures liquidations over the past 24 hours, with $5.15 million from long positions and $2.25 million from shorts. The token is currently retesting the upper boundary of a descending channel for the third consecutive day.

📉 Key support level: $2.00
📈 Immediate resistance: $2.72

A successful hold above the channel’s upper boundary could push XRP toward $2.72, while a daily close below $2.00 may send the token toward $1.35.

Indicators to Watch:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Testing neutral levels; a crossover could signal bullish momentum.
• Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch): Needs to move above the neutral line to confirm strength.
• Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Awaiting a bullish crossover for confirmation.

🚀 Bullish Breakout Potential: A move above $2.72 could trigger a rally toward seven-year highs.

⚠️ Bearish Risk: A breakdown below $2.00 could fuel further sell-offs.

Final Thoughts

XRP’s futures market remains bearish, but long-term holders’ confidence and the legal resolution prospects keep optimism afloat. If XRP can hold key support levels and break above resistance at $2.72, a bullish shift could be on the horizon. However, traders should stay cautious as negative funding rates and weak futures sentiment still weigh on short-term price action.

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