The EUR/USD pair remains stable above 1.0800 in Monday’s European session, consolidating last week’s strong rally. Germany’s latest Industrial Production data, which exceeded market forecasts, failed to spark a significant market reaction but reinforced positive sentiment toward the Euro.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Maintain Control
The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating within a tight range, with technical indicators suggesting that the bullish trend remains intact despite minor corrections.
Key Technical Levels:
🔹 Support:
- 1.0800 – Static level, 20-period SMA, psychological support
- 1.0760 – Static support zone
- 1.0730 – 200-day SMA
🔹 Resistance:
- 1.0870 – 200-week SMA, key resistance level
- 1.0900 – Psychological barrier and static resistance
- 1.0940 – Multi-month resistance level
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart has slightly retreated from overbought territory (70+), indicating that a short-term consolidation may occur before the next bullish move.
Fundamental Outlook: Eurozone Data in Focus
Eurozone Economic Indicators (March 10, 2025)
| Time (GMT) | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | Eurozone Exports (MoM) | -2.5% | 2.5% |
| 07:00 | Industrial Production (YoY) | -1.6% | -2.2% |
| 07:00 | Industrial Production (MoM) | 2.0% | -1.5% |
| 10:00 | Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) | 0.6% | N/A |
| 10:00 | Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Harmonized (YoY) | 3.1% | N/A |
Germany’s Industrial Production grew at 2.0% in January, surpassing expectations of 1.5%. The year-on-year decline of -1.6% was also better than the anticipated -2.2%. However, the Euro failed to gain a significant boost, as investors are closely watching the upcoming ECB policy decisions and broader market sentiment.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Weak Jobs Data & Trade Uncertainty
The US Dollar (USD) struggled last week as disappointing US economic data and concerns over Trump’s latest tariff moves fueled recession fears.
Key US Economic Updates:
📉 February Nonfarm Payrolls: +151,000 (vs. 160,000 expected)
📈 US Unemployment Rate: 4.1% (vs. 4.0% previous)
💰 Wage Growth (YoY): 4.0% (down from 4.9%)
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that trade uncertainty under the Trump administration remains high, adding that the Fed could maintain its policy stance longer if inflation progress stalls. However, these remarks did not trigger a major reaction in the EUR/USD pair.
With the Federal Reserve in a blackout period this week, investors will shift their attention to Wednesday’s US CPI report, a key inflation measure that could influence future Fed policy.
Market Sentiment & What’s Next for EUR/USD?
- 📉 US Stock Futures: Indicate a bearish Wall Street open (down 0.4%-0.6%), which may offer short-term support for the US Dollar.
- 🔎 ECB Rate Decision: Traders await the ECB’s policy update later this week, with markets expecting a 25bps rate cut to support sluggish Eurozone growth.
- 🔥 Trump’s Trade Tariffs: The ongoing US-EU trade tensions remain a critical risk factor for the Euro. Any additional tariff threats from Trump’s administration could add volatility to the EUR/USD pair.
💡 Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair is holding steady above 1.0800, with strong technical support below. However, traders will closely monitor upcoming inflation reports and central bank decisions before making major moves.
