The EUR/USD pair is trading within a narrow range around 1.1650 during Thursday’s session, with the Euro facing mixed pressure after the Bank of England’s policy announcement triggered a sharp drop in EUR/GBP. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure as investors brace for upcoming economic data from the US.
🔍 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Consolidates
Currently trading at 1.1648, EUR/USD shows signs of a short-term correction after failing to push higher. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 70, suggesting the pair is pulling back from overbought levels.
Key support is found at the 1.1650–1.1660 zone, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) converges with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish trend. A failure to hold above this level could trigger further downside toward:
- 1.1620 – 100-period SMA
- 1.1540–1.1550 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 50-period SMA
- 1.1500 – A critical psychological support level
On the upside, resistance is located at:
- 1.1700 – Static and round number resistance
- 1.1760 – Previous swing high
- 1.1800 – A key round level that may cap further gains
🧾 Fundamental Drivers – Focus on US Jobless Claims and Trade Tensions
Markets are closely watching US Initial Jobless Claims, set to be released later today. Expectations point to a slight increase to 221,000 from 218,000. A stronger-than-expected reading below 210,000 could support the US Dollar, while a miss above 230,000 might weaken it and boost EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions continue to impact sentiment. US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs—25% on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports, with potential additional tariffs on China for similar reasons. The administration also plans a massive 100% tariff on imported semiconductors not made in the US, sparking concerns over global trade disruptions.
Such headlines weigh on the USD, with fears of further escalation in US-China trade relations limiting greenback demand.
📊 Upcoming Eurozone Data to Watch
Several mid-tier Eurozone indicators are also on the radar, including:
- EU Industrial Production (YoY) – Expected at -2%
- Harmonized CPI (YoY) – Forecast at 3.6%
- Regular CPI (YoY) – Seen at 2.8%
- Global Trade Balance – Projected at -€3.217B
Unless US data or central bank commentary sparks a shift in sentiment, EUR/USD is likely to remain within its current range, with the 1.1650 level acting as a pivotal technical point in the short term.
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