The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains under pressure but holds above the key support level of 0.6430 during Thursday’s European session. The AUD/USD pair found modest support after Australian Retail Sales for June surprised to the upside, growing 1.2% MoM, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics—signaling resilience in consumer spending.
📉 AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Bearish Momentum Persists
The pair is trading around 0.6450, but technical indicators reflect a bearish bias. The 14-day RSI has dipped below the neutral 50 level, while the price remains under the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—signaling weak short-term momentum.
Key levels to watch:
- 🔻 Immediate support: 0.6426 (monthly low from July 30)
- 🔻 Next major support: 0.6372 (two-month low from June 23)
- 🔺 Resistance: 0.6498 (50-day EMA), followed by 0.6506 (9-day EMA)
- 🔺 Breakout target: 0.6625 (8-month high)
A breach below 0.6426 could open the door to deeper downside, while recovery above 0.6500 may reignite bullish sentiment.
🔍 Fundamental Outlook – RBA Cuts Loom, USD Strength Weighs
Despite stronger retail sales, expectations remain firm for a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in August, as inflation continues to cool. Recent data showed CPI growth slowed to 0.7% QoQ in Q2, below expectations.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a two-month high around 100.00, bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary. Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed there’s “no urgency” for a rate cut in September, reducing dovish expectations.
🔜 Eyes on US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Markets now await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July, due Friday. Economists forecast 110K new jobs, down from 147K in June. Strong jobs and wage data could strengthen the USD further, pressuring AUD/USD toward 0.6370.
🌍 Global Trade Updates Add to Volatility
- Trump’s Tariffs: New 15% tariff on South Korea, part of a $350B investment deal.
- US-EU Trade Pact: 15% tariffs on European goods to begin August 1.
- China Watch: Ongoing US-China tariff truce talks continue. Any developments here could directly impact the Aussie Dollar, due to Australia’s deep trade ties with China.
Meanwhile, China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised fiscal support to boost domestic consumption amid economic headwinds—another key factor influencing AUD sentiment.
Conclusion:
The AUD/USD remains in a fragile position above 0.6430. With RBA rate cuts looming and USD strength intact, the pair’s next move hinges on the upcoming US Jobs Report. A downside break could accelerate losses, while a weaker-than-expected NFP might trigger a temporary AUD relief rally.
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