Crude oil prices remain steady after confirming a bullish breakout, with the potential to rally toward $73.31 based on Fibonacci retracement levels and broader price structure.
Crude Oil Outlook (WTI)
Following a strong breakout on Wednesday, WTI crude oil consolidated on Thursday within a tight range of $67.25 to $68.30—forming an inside day pattern. Despite the pause, bullish momentum remains intact. The daily close in the upper third of Wednesday’s range, coupled with the successful retest of former resistance as support, reinforces the breakout’s credibility.
Key technical levels—such as the $67.41 five-day breakout point and the AVWAP anchored from the January high—acted as solid support, indicating readiness for the next leg higher.
Rebounding from Key Support Levels
Crude oil bounced from a confluence of technical supports, including:
- The AVWAP from the April swing low
- The neckline of a confirmed double-bottom formation
- The lower boundary of a rising trend channel
These aligned technical factors suggest the breakout has a strong foundation. A move off the lower end of a trend channel often hints at a potential test of the upper boundary.
Bullish Momentum Building
A clear break above $68.34 would confirm the next phase of bullish continuation. Minor resistance is expected between $68.89 and $68.92, where the 20-day and 200-day moving averages converge. However, if bullish momentum holds, this area should be surpassed with relative ease. Failure to clear this zone would raise doubts about the strength of the reversal.
Crude has validated the trend channel with repeated rejections at its upper boundary, making this a key technical framework going forward.
Fibonacci Levels and Upside Targets
Should prices breach the $70.14 level (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), further targets lie at:
- $71.73 – 50% retracement level
- $72.12 – AVWAP from April 2024 swing high
- $73.31 – 61.8% retracement and possible intersection with the downtrend line
A continued move higher could see crude oil gravitate toward the midline of the rising channel, making the $73+ range a realistic upside target in the near term.