Gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) remain in the spotlight as heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Yet, despite bullish fundamentals, both metals face key technical resistance levels that could determine their next major move.
🟡 Gold Struggles Below $3,400 Despite Rising War Fears
Gold prices are holding firm near the $3,400 level but have yet to break decisively higher, as markets digest the impact of President Trump’s reported approval of potential strike plans on Iran. Fears of an expanded Middle East conflict have boosted investor appetite for safe-haven assets like gold.
However, the Federal Reserve’s recent policy stance is putting a ceiling on further upside. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% and signaled only one rate cut in 2026, while raising its 2025 core PCE inflation forecast to 3.1%. At the same time, GDP growth was revised lower to 1.4% and unemployment is expected to climb to 4.5% — signs of economic caution that support a tight monetary policy stance.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced from the 98.00 level, helped by stable Treasury yields and hawkish Fed comments. Rising real yields continue to pressure gold. That said, strong central bank gold purchases reported by the World Gold Council could offer long-term support.
📈 Gold Technical Outlook – XAU/USD Charts
Daily Chart:
Gold is consolidating within an ascending triangle just below $3,400. A breakout above this level would confirm bullish continuation and open the door toward $4,000. Prices remain supported by both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing bullish sentiment.
4-Hour Chart:
Price action shows consolidation below $3,430, with repeated rejections suggesting indecision. A breakout above $3,500 could ignite the next rally phase, while failure to do so might lead to short-term pullbacks.
⚪ Silver Hovers Above $35 After Bullish Breakout
Silver has surged past the $35 barrier, fueled by geopolitical fears and strong momentum above major moving averages. However, the RSI is flashing overbought signals on the daily chart, hinting at a potential short-term correction from the $37 zone.
Support is expected around the $35–$35.50 area, which has now flipped from resistance to demand.
4-Hour Chart:
Silver shows strong bullish momentum following a breakout above $34.50. The $31.80 support zone acted as a launchpad for this move, and the bullish trend remains intact unless price breaks back below that region.
💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook
Daily Chart:
The Dollar Index is rebounding from 98.00 and approaching the 50-day SMA near 99.55. A break above this level could send the index toward the 100.65 resistance. As long as DXY remains below 100.65, the broader bearish structure remains intact.
4-Hour Chart:
The index is testing the upper edge of a descending channel near 99.00. A confirmed breakout above 100.50 could shift short-term momentum bullish, while rejection at that level would signal renewed downside.
🔍 Final Takeaway
Gold and silver remain supported by global risk aversion, but upcoming moves will depend heavily on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds and how the U.S. dollar behaves. Watch $3,400 and $35 as critical levels for gold and silver respectively — a breakout or rejection could set the tone for the rest of the month.
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