Fed Holds Rates Steady But Signals Higher Long-Term Path Through 2027

The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50% on June 18, 2025, while subtly shifting its long-term stance by raising rate projections for 2026 and 2027. Although the near-term policy remains dovish, the updated outlook reflects a more cautious approach to inflation in the years ahead.

📝 Fed Holds Rates, But Upgrades Future Rate Path

As widely anticipated, the FOMC decision maintained the current federal funds rate. However, the updated economic projections suggest a longer-than-expected path toward rate normalization.

📌 Key Changes in Fed Projections:

• 2025 GDP growth forecast trimmed from 1.7% to 1.4%
• Unemployment estimate for 2025 raised from 4.4% to 4.5%
• PCE inflation forecast lifted from 2.7% to 3.0% in 2025, and from 2.2% to 2.4% in 2026
• Fed funds rate outlook for 2026 and 2027 revised higher, signaling that the central bank may need to keep rates elevated longer to combat inflation

Although this year’s rate projection remains at 3.9%, the 2026 projection rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, implying that monetary easing may be slower than previously thought.

📉 Market Reaction: Dollar Steady, Gold Stalls, Stocks Slide

Market participants were quick to respond to the Fed’s updated tone, though the initial moves remained restrained.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 98.70, with support likely from the elevated rate outlook for 2026–2027
• Gold (XAU/USD) remained below the critical $3,400 level, showing hesitation despite the Fed’s moderate policy stance
• The S&P 500 (SPX) failed to hold above the 6025 resistance and slipped back toward 6000, reflecting a cautious tone across risk assets

📊 What Traders Should Watch Next

All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference, where his tone could significantly influence short-term sentiment. Any additional clarity on inflation risks, labor market dynamics, or the pace of future cuts will be crucial for forex, commodities, and equities alike.

🧠 Summary for DailyForex.pk Traders

✅ Fed leaves rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, in line with expectations
✅ Inflation projections for 2025 and 2026 revised higher
✅ Fed signals higher long-term interest rates in 2026 and 2027
✅ USD holds steady, gold range-bound, S&P 500 pulls back
✅ Powell’s press conference remains the next volatility trigger

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