Markets are bracing for finalized Q1 GDP figures from Japan on June 9, with potential ripple effects on the Japanese Yen and Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy outlook.
Japan’s preliminary report showed a 0.2% quarterly contraction, driven by a sharp 0.8% drop in external demand and stagnant consumer spending—the second straight quarter of flat household consumption.
If revisions reflect stronger consumer spending or external demand, headline GDP could be revised upward. This would support BoJ’s growth projections and increase the likelihood of a Q3 rate hike, strengthening the yen and pushing USD/JPY lower.
On the other hand, weaker data would reduce BoJ rate hike bets and favor further USD/JPY upside.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently indicated rate hikes remain on the table if inflation and growth align with forecasts.
Additional Factors:
- Rising global trade tensions could trigger safe-haven demand for the Yen.
- Easing geopolitical risks may weaken the Yen and push USD/JPY higher.
🔍 USD/JPY Daily Technical Outlook: Bearish Signals Emerge
- Support: 142.50 (last week’s low)
- Resistance: 146.28 (May 29 high, near 50-day EMA)
A higher-than-expected US inflation expectations print may reduce Fed rate cut hopes, pushing USD/JPY toward resistance. A softer figure could weaken the USD and pressure the pair down to 142.5.
📊 USD/JPY Daily Chart shows bearish bias forming.
🦘 AUD/USD Forecast: Chinese Trade and Inflation Data Take the Lead
For the Australian Dollar, the key driver this week is China’s economic health, particularly trade and inflation figures. As China absorbs nearly one-third of Aussie exports, any signs of slower demand or weaker trade data could weigh on AUD/USD.
Australia’s economy—highly trade-dependent—faces pressure if Chinese demand softens, possibly forcing the RBA into a more dovish stance. That would push AUD/USD below $0.6450, with the 200-day EMA in sight.
Conversely, upbeat data from China could fuel optimism and lift AUD/USD toward $0.6550, retesting the June 5 high of 0.65377.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently warned:
“Australia’s economy could be compromised if the US-China trade war escalates… trade developments may influence future rate adjustments.”
🔍 AUD/USD Daily Technical Outlook
- Support: $0.6450 (key level, near 200-day EMA)
- Resistance: $0.6550 (round level, near recent highs)
Upcoming US inflation expectations will also influence the interest rate differential between the US and Australia. A higher reading could favor the USD and drag AUD/USD lower. A softer print could allow the Aussie to climb.
🔚 Final Takeaway
This week’s key events for forex traders:
- June 9: Finalized Japan GDP data → Watch USD/JPY
- June 10: China trade data → Watch AUD/USD
- Daily: US inflation expectations → Key for both USD/JPY and AUD/USD
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