Silver (XAG/USD) is showing signs of a potential breakout as the metal holds firm above critical technical support and eyes a decisive move above the 50-day moving average. Following a recent dip to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $32.67, silver rebounded sharply—signaling a bullish reaction from traders watching for trend continuation.
📉 Technical Outlook: Holding Firm at Support
Last Thursday’s low of $32.67 marks a meaningful retracement level, which triggered a strong intraday bounce and a daily close in the upper third of the session’s range. This behavior indicates strong demand and market recognition of key support zones. Monday’s session remained inside Friday’s price range, consolidating between $32.00 and $32.68, with the 50-day moving average (MA) at $32.63 acting as a ceiling for the third consecutive session.
Silver continues to find support not only from the Fibonacci retracement but also from a long-term uptrend line and the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) anchored from the April low—further validating the potential for a bullish continuation. However, a decisive drop below $31.67 would invalidate the bullish scenario and open the door for deeper corrections.
📊 Eyes on 50-Day MA: The Breakout Zone
Resistance remains tight around the 50-day MA, with silver unable to close above it for three sessions in a row. A daily close above $32.72 (last Friday’s high) would not only confirm a breakout above the 50-day average but also establish a higher swing low from April’s bullish base—potentially launching a second leg higher.
A successful breakout may target the next upside level at $33.70, representing the previous lower swing high. This would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend from April’s bottom and bring $35.00 into focus in the medium term.
🕰️ Weekly Chart Insights: 20-Week MA Support
Though not shown here, the weekly chart reinforces the bullish case. Last week’s price action confirmed a successful retest of the 20-week moving average, which had been reclaimed a month ago. The 20-week MA is now trending upward again, and importantly, the 20-day MA turned upward last Friday after declining since April 3—adding to the bullish sentiment.
🔍 What to Watch Next
- Bullish confirmation: A close above $32.72 would validate the breakout.
- Bearish invalidation: A fall below $31.67 would signal weakness.
- Short-term target: $33.70 and beyond to $35.00.
- Support zone: $32.00 to $31.67 (Fibonacci + trendline + AVWAP convergence).
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