USD/JPY & AUD/USD Outlook – PMIs and Tariff Sentiment Drive Direction

April 23, 2025 – DailyForex.pk
This week’s focus in the forex market turns sharply toward Japanese and Australian PMI data, evolving trade dynamics, and central bank rhetoric, as traders look for cues on the direction of USD/JPY and AUD/USD.

---

🇯🇵 USD/JPY Forecast: Japan PMIs and BoJ Outlook in Spotlight

Japan’s April flash PMIs, released Wednesday, highlight a fragile economic backdrop that could influence the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next rate move. Markets are particularly focused on the Jibun Bank Services PMI, forecast at 49.7, which—if confirmed or worse—would dip below the neutral 50 level and signal contraction in the service sector.

This would raise concerns about a looming recession, dampen rate hike expectations for H1 2025, and possibly weaken demand for the Japanese Yen. On the other hand, any upside surprise could reignite hawkish BoJ bets and drive the yen stronger.

💹 USD/JPY Scenarios

• Bullish Yen: Strong Japan Services PMI, geopolitical tensions, or hawkish BoJ tone → Targets 140.30
• Bearish Yen: Weak PMI, easing US-China trade tension, or dovish BoJ signals → Pair may test 145.00

---

🇺🇸 US PMIs and Fed Signals: Key Drivers for USD/JPY

Later in the day, traders will digest S&P Global US PMIs, especially the Services PMI, projected to fall from 54.4 to 52.8 in April. With services accounting for 80% of the US GDP, the data holds significant weight.

• A weak print may boost recession fears and rate cut bets—bearish for the dollar.
• A strong reading would likely reduce expectations of a June Fed rate cut, favoring USD strength.

Fed commentary and tariff developments will also influence intraday volatility in USD/JPY.

---

🇦🇺 AUD/USD Forecast: Australian PMIs Exceed Expectations

Australia’s latest Judo Bank PMIs surprised to the upside:

• Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.7 (from 52.1)
• Services PMI slightly dipped to 51.4 (from 51.6)

Despite the slight slowdown, the reports show:

• Strong new business activity, driven by domestic demand
• Rising inflation pressures from higher input costs
• Increased staffing, hinting at labor market resilience

This data diminishes the chances of a near-term RBA rate cut, especially amid persistent tariff risks and currency-related cost pressures.

📊 AUD/USD Scenarios

• Bullish AUD: Trade optimism or hawkish RBA → Break above 200-day EMA, targeting 0.65
• Bearish AUD: Renewed trade threats or dovish RBA signals → Break below 0.6362, eyeing 0.63

---

🌍 Macro Themes to Watch

• USD/JPY: Japan PMIs, US PMI results, BoJ statements, Fed tone
• AUD/USD: Australian economic data, RBA rhetoric, China’s stimulus policy, US-China tariff talks

---

📈 Technical Outlook: Charts Signal Mixed Trends

🔹 USD/JPY – Bearish Bias Grows

• Price still trades with resistance near 145, while support sits at 140.30
• Any shift in rate expectations could spark sharp moves

🔹 AUD/USD – Bullish Momentum Holds

• Pair remains above key moving averages
• Watch for a sustained move above 0.65 or breakdown below 0.6362

---

📍 For the latest forex forecasts, central bank insights, and market-moving data, visit www.dailyforex.pk.