USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast: Diverging Central Bank Policies and Global Developments to Impact Price Movement

USD/JPY: Fed and BoJ Divergence to Influence Market Direction

The USD/JPY pair continues to be influenced by the differing monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts, the BoJ is focused on a more hawkish stance, aiming for monetary policy normalization. The recent drop in Japan’s inflation to 3.1% in July, though still above the BoJ’s target, combined with strong wage growth, suggests that BoJ rate hikes remain a possibility in the coming months. This divergence is likely to provide the Yen with support against the US Dollar in the near term.

Japan’s Trade Data and Wage Growth Could Swing the Market

Japan’s trade data and wage growth will be crucial in determining the next direction for the USD/JPY pair. While a weaker export performance may raise concerns about Japan’s economic outlook, strong domestic wage growth could help maintain upward pressure on inflation and, consequently, support the BoJ’s tightening policy. The upcoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium is likely to provide fresh insights into the Fed’s monetary stance, which could further affect USD/JPY price action.

Key Levels for USD/JPY:

• Support: 145.00, 146.00 (psychological levels), 147.00
• Resistance: 149.00, 149.35, 150.00

If the Fed continues on its path of tightening, it could drive the USD/JPY pair towards resistance levels above 149.35. On the other hand, a dovish Powell could weaken the USD, providing support to the Yen.

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AUD/USD: Mixed Data and Rate Cut Speculation Drive the Aussie Dollar

The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces mixed signals as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) leans towards dovish policy and economic data provides a mixed outlook. The Australian dollar remains pressured by the potential for further rate cuts by the RBA, especially as inflation remains sticky, while wage growth continues to show signs of rising. Despite higher-than-expected wages, the RBA has remained cautious, suggesting that more easing may be on the horizon.

China’s Economic Slowdown Continues to Weigh on AUD

Australia’s close ties to China also remain a concern, as China’s economic slowdown, particularly in the manufacturing sector, places additional pressure on the AUD. However, some sectors have shown resilience, such as the services sector, which is benefiting from domestic demand. As Australia’s economic data offers mixed signals, traders are increasingly looking toward the Fed’s stance to gauge potential shifts in the USD-AUD interest rate differential.

Key Levels for AUD/USD:

• Support: 0.6400, 0.6360
• Resistance: 0.6500, 0.6550, 0.6600

If the Fed continues to ease and the RBA signals further rate cuts, AUD/USD could test lower support levels. Conversely, if wage inflation remains sticky and the RBA maintains a cautious approach, the Aussie Dollar may find renewed strength. Powell’s speech and upcoming data releases will play a critical role in the AUD/USD outlook.

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Market Drivers to Watch:

• USD/JPY: Watch for BoJ policy signals and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole for potential moves.
• AUD/USD: Keep an eye on the RBA’s stance on interest rates, along with China’s economic data and Powell’s comments on inflation risks.

Final Thoughts:
Both the USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs are facing cross-currents of economic data and central bank policy expectations. While the USD/JPY could see further bullish momentum if the Fed maintains its hawkish stance, the AUD/USD’s trajectory will largely depend on the Fed’s rate cuts and China’s economic recovery. For traders, caution and close attention to global economic and policy developments are key to making informed decisions.

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