USD/JPY & AUD/USD Forecast: Key Data to Drive Bank of Japan and RBA Policy Moves

The Japanese Yen (JPY) and Australian Dollar (AUD) are in focus this week as traders brace for critical economic data that could influence interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

---

🇯🇵 Japanese Yen Outlook: Will Weak PPI Weigh on USD/JPY?

Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due May 14, could be pivotal for the USD/JPY exchange rate. Analysts expect a year-over-year increase of 4.0%, slightly down from 4.2% in March. A weaker-than-expected reading may signal easing inflation and dampen BoJ’s tightening prospects—dragging the Yen lower.

📉 Bearish Case for USD/JPY:

• Stronger Japanese inflation
• Hawkish BoJ tone
• Global risk-off sentiment

📈 Bullish Case for USD/JPY:

• Softer producer prices
• Dovish BoJ
• Broad USD strength on Fed hawkishness

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: 149.35, 200-day EMA
• Support: 145.00, 50-day EMA

🕒 Also monitor: U.S. Fed statements, geopolitical risks, and trade negotiations for further USD/JPY direction.

---

🇦🇺 AUD/USD Outlook: Aussie Jobs Data to Guide RBA Rate Expectations

The Australian Dollar (AUD) awaits fresh cues from April’s labor market data, due May 15. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. Strong employment could reduce the chance of RBA rate cuts in 2025 and lift AUD/USD higher.

📈 Bullish Case for AUD/USD:

• Falling jobless rate
• Hawkish RBA tone
• China stimulus or trade optimism

📉 Bearish Case for AUD/USD:

• Rising unemployment
• Dovish RBA guidance
• Renewed US-China tensions

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $0.6514 (May 7 high)
• Support: $0.6362, 200-day EMA

🎯 Market Impact: RBA may lean less dovish if job growth is robust, while softer labor figures could increase rate cut bets.

---

📊 Additional Drivers Today:

• USD/JPY: BoJ commentary, U.S.-Japan trade headlines, and producer prices
• AUD/USD: Fed speakers, U.S.-China trade updates, Aussie labor market report
• Both pairs: Any surprise from the Fed may swing yield differentials and risk sentiment

---

📌 Stay updated on the latest forex forecasts, central bank moves, and data-driven currency analysis at www.dailyforex.pk.