Silver (XAG/USD) is showing renewed bullish momentum, rallying to a five-day high of $39.04 on Monday and edging closer to a potential breakout above the critical resistance level of $39.13. This level, which marked last week’s multi-year peak, now stands as a gateway to further upside, supported by both technical indicators and broader long-term chart structures.
Silver continues to trade within a well-defined ascending trend channel established since the April swing low. Last week’s retreat to $37.50 served as a healthy pullback, successfully retesting the previous breakout zone from June. The price also bounced from the lower boundary of the rising channel, reinforcing the bullish structure.
A sustained breakout above $39.13 would not only confirm a continuation of the uptrend but also validate the third bullish leg in the current channel pattern. If the current leg matches the percentage gain of the previous upward swing, silver could rally toward $40.69. Coincidentally, this zone aligns closely with dual Fibonacci extension levels around $40.86—adding technical weight to the bullish case.
Traders are watching the $39.13 level closely. A daily close above this price would signify a breakout from both horizontal resistance and the upper boundary of a secondary rising channel. This upper channel, drawn from the 2022 lows, has acted as a key dynamic resistance and now offers a major test of strength. Clearing this hurdle may invite fresh buying interest and propel silver toward higher technical targets.
Zooming out, silver is shaping a long-term bullish narrative that could redefine its trajectory in the coming quarters. A large cup-and-handle base appears to be unfolding, with the 2011 peak near $49.81 forming the pattern’s left shoulder. In parallel, a bull flag originating from the 2020 lows provides a powerful continuation signal.
Based on technical projections, a confirmed breakout from the flag’s $26.09 base suggests a medium-term upside target of approximately $41.70—well within reach if current momentum holds.
With technical support intact and price action testing key breakout levels, silver appears well-positioned for another leg higher. Should the $39.13 resistance give way, traders could see silver accelerate toward the $41.70 level and potentially beyond. The broader macro backdrop—including inflation dynamics, central bank policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions—will remain crucial drivers. But from a purely technical perspective, the bulls currently hold the upper hand.
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