Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Retreats After Fresh High as Sellers Step In

Silver (XAG/USD) surged to a new trend high at the start of the week but failed to hold onto its gains, signaling a potential short-term pullback as resistance levels came into play. While the broader uptrend remains intact, technical signals point to a temporary pause in bullish momentum.

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🔹 Silver Fails to Hold $39.00 – Bearish Reversal in Play

Silver briefly rallied to a new trend high of $39.13 on Monday but faced sharp resistance, triggering a swift intraday selloff. Prices dropped back toward $38.11, near the day’s lows, indicating growing bearish pressure.

At the time of writing, silver remains under pressure and is set to close with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. A confirmed drop below Monday’s low could validate this bearish reversal. However, due to the wide trading range, consolidation within Monday’s range is also possible before the next decisive move.

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🕯️ Candlestick & Price Structure: Short-Term Reversal Brewing

• Shooting Star Pattern: The reversal signal becomes valid on a close below $38.11.
• Bearish Pressure: The rejection near the midpoint of the rising trend channel suggests exhaustion.
• Key Support Ahead: A potential pullback could test the former breakout zone around $37.32.

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📊 Technical Context: Breakout Pauses After Strong Rally

Silver’s breakout last Friday from a four-week consolidation base sent a strong bullish signal. The price surged past layered resistance between $38.46–$38.61, closing the week near the highs—a sign of buyer dominance.

Monday’s session, however, ran into resistance at the dashed midpoint of the rising channel, leading to a sharp rejection and profit-taking.

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📈 Trend Analysis: Bullish Structure Intact Despite Pullback

Despite Monday’s selloff, the larger uptrend remains strong. The move to $39+ followed a successful retest of the 20-Day Moving Average (MA) and support along the lower ascending trendline. This confluence provided the launchpad for last week’s breakout.

• Support Zone to Watch: $37.32 (prior high) and $36.85 (channel support)
• Resistance to Reclaim: $38.61 and $39.13

Once the pullback completes, technical structure suggests silver could resume its upward trajectory toward the upper boundary of the rising channel.

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🔍 Outlook: Bullish Trend Pauses, But Not Broken

Silver’s failure to sustain its breakout above $39.00 signals a temporary exhaustion, not a reversal of the broader bullish trend. A pullback toward the $37.00 zone would be healthy within the context of the ongoing uptrend.

Traders should watch for:

• A bounce from the $37.30–$37.50 support zone
• Bullish confirmation above $38.60
• Downside risk below $36.85 if sentiment weakens

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