Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Poised for Multi-Year High on Tariff Risk and Fed Cues

Key Highlights:

• Silver eyes $37.32 as markets brace for Trump’s tariff deadline and FOMC minutes.
• Dovish Fed expectations and dollar weakness may drive renewed bullish momentum.
• Thin holiday volume, looming supply deficits, and trade tensions support further upside.

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Tariffs Could Be Silver’s Catalyst

Silver enters a critical week as traders watch for potential fallout from President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline. His threats of 10–50% tariffs on key trade partners — following last week’s 20% levy on Vietnamese goods — have raised concerns of industrial disruption.

Given silver’s heavy use in electronics and solar, broader trade restrictions could trigger preemptive inventory hoarding, driving up physical demand and accelerating price gains.

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Fed Minutes May Reinforce Rate Cut Bets

All eyes turn to Wednesday’s Fed minutes. With markets pricing a 91.5% chance of a September rate cut and Goldman Sachs now expecting three this year, dovish confirmation could spark a deeper selloff in the US dollar. Trump’s push for 1% interest rates adds pressure for further easing.

For silver, this environment is ideal — lower yields reduce the cost of holding non-yielding metals, while a weaker dollar boosts foreign demand.

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Dollar Drop Sets Bullish Stage

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide, losing 0.64% against the yen and 0.33% against the Swiss franc last week — its weakest levels since early 2022. This trend benefits silver, especially in periods of global economic uncertainty when capital flows into safe havens with industrial value.

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Fiscal Spending and Industrial Demand Add Fuel

A $3.9 trillion US spending plan, extending tax cuts and adding debt, supports silver both as a fiscal hedge and industrial input — especially as green energy and infrastructure investment rises.

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Technical Outlook: Bullish Breakout In Sight

Silver has broken above $36.30 and retested $36.84, maintaining bullish structure as it targets the $37.32 multi-year high. A dovish Fed and escalation in trade tensions could ignite a breakout.

However, any softening on tariffs or surprise hawkish tilt in Fed tone may trigger a brief pullback — likely viewed as a buying opportunity in an otherwise bullish trend.

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