Ripple Faces Judgment Day: XRP Legal Clouds Weigh on ETF Hopes as Bitcoin Slides Below $100K

Key Highlights:

• Investors await Judge Torres’ ruling on Ripple’s second plea to lift the XRP institutional sales ban.
• A negative ruling may push Ripple toward a cross-appeal, extending legal uncertainties for XRP.
• Despite legal hurdles, traders on Polymarket show 88% confidence in a 2025 XRP-spot ETF approval.
• Bitcoin drops under $100K amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and oil shock risks.

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⚖️ Ripple Awaits Pivotal Court Decision as Legal Battle Nears Crossroads

The cryptocurrency world turns its gaze to the ongoing Ripple v. SEC lawsuit, as Judge Analisa Torres is expected to rule on Ripple’s revised motion to ease restrictions on XRP’s institutional sales. The previous denial of the motion sent XRP tumbling from $2.57 to a low of $2.06 on June 5. A repeat rejection could trigger Ripple’s cross-appeal, potentially reigniting the SEC’s own appeal over XRP’s programmatic sales — prolonging the already complex litigation.

The July 2023 judgment that ruled programmatic sales of XRP do not qualify as securities had fueled optimism around an XRP-spot ETF. However, if that precedent is overturned, ETF prospects could dim drastically.

Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan weighed in, stating that the SEC’s aggressive stance may have pushed Ripple to seek broader relief than originally intended. The underlying tone suggests Ripple’s legal team is preparing for a long-haul battle, especially if political dynamics shift post-2024 elections.

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📉 Legal Uncertainty vs. ETF Euphoria: Are Markets Mispricing XRP’s Risks?

Despite Ripple’s precarious legal standing, a striking 88% of Polymarket participants believe a U.S.-based XRP-spot ETF will launch in 2025. But unlike Bitcoin’s success, this enthusiasm isn’t backed by concrete signals from institutional players.

BlackRock (BLK), whose iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) helped usher BTC to new heights, has remained silent on any XRP product since a fake ETF filing in 2023 caused chaos. A real XRP-spot ETF could be a game-changer — but not while Ripple’s legal status remains unresolved.

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📊 XRP Price Outlook: Legal Verdict Looms Large

XRP posted back-to-back losses over the weekend, slipping to $2.0212. The broader crypto market also softened, but XRP’s sharper decline reflects legal stress.

Key Technical Levels:

• Upside: Break above $2.10 could test the 200-day EMA; sustained bullish momentum might retarget the 50-day EMA.
• Downside: A drop under $1.93 could open the door to $1.80 or lower.

Daily chart analysis suggests bearish sentiment prevails until clarity emerges from the courtroom.

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💣 Bitcoin Dips as Geopolitical Shocks Ripple Through Markets

Bitcoin wasn’t spared in the latest risk-off shift, plunging below $100K as headlines confirmed U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran responded by signaling plans to shut the Strait of Hormuz — a global chokepoint for oil exports — for the first time in over 50 years.

If that closure materializes, it could spike oil prices, driving up inflation and forcing central banks to halt rate cuts. The Kobeissi Letter warned that such inflationary pressure could lead the Fed to reverse course, potentially hiking rates instead of cutting — a negative for BTC and risk assets.

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🧠 BTC Outlook: What Could Drive Bitcoin Next?

Downside Risks:

• Strait of Hormuz closure
• Tariff escalation from the U.S.
• Negative crypto legislation
• Outflows from BTC ETFs

Upside Catalysts:

• Middle East de-escalation
• ETF inflow resumption
• Clear bipartisan support for the Bitcoin Act
• Positive regulatory signals

Bitcoin ended June 22 at $100,982 — and the coming days could determine whether BTC tests $90K support or claws back toward its $111,917 record.

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