Oil and Natural Gas Surge on Supply Fears as Middle East Conflict Escalates

Crude oil and natural gas prices are climbing steadily as rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel stir fears of energy supply disruptions. With WTI crude breaking above major technical levels and natural gas extending gains above $3.00, traders are closely watching for the next breakout.

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🔥 Iran-Israel Tensions Drive Energy Market Volatility

Prices received fresh support after reports surfaced that former President Trump privately approved U.S. strike plans on Iran, pending further developments in Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has rejected Washington’s demands, increasing the likelihood of direct U.S. involvement and potentially targeting critical Middle Eastern energy infrastructure.

Adding fuel to the rally, U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 11.473 million barrels last week—the largest draw in a year, according to the EIA. Still, caution prevails after the IEA lowered its global demand forecast and raised supply estimates, hinting at longer-term headwinds.

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📈 Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil (CL)

🕹️ Daily Chart – Price Breakout Above 200-Day SMA

• WTI has surged above $66, breaking decisively above the 200-day Simple Moving Average
• High volatility suggests an imminent breakout above the dotted red resistance line
• A close above $75 could trigger a strong rally toward the $80–$84 zone

The breakout momentum is being driven primarily by supply shock fears, supported by a bullish technical structure.

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⏱️ 4-Hour Chart – Wedge Breakout Confirmed

• The price has broken out of a descending broadening wedge
• Target near $75 has already been met
• Current consolidation below $75 is likely a bullish continuation pattern

🔼 Next resistance targets:

• $75 → $80 → $84

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🔋 Natural Gas (NG) Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds

🕹️ Daily Chart – Break Above $3.00 Strengthens Trend

• Natural gas is rebounding strongly from the $3.00 support level
• Price is now trading above the 50-day SMA, reinforcing the bullish setup
• A cup-and-handle pattern suggests potential for a long-term move toward $5.00

⏱️ 4-Hour Chart – Breakout Above $3.80

• The breakout above $3.80 opens the door to $4.70
• Positive price action in the $3.00–$3.80 range confirms strength

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💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) Outlook: Attempting a Rebound

🕹️ Daily Chart – Near-Term Recovery Attempt

• DXY is rebounding from 98.00 support
• Next target: 99.50 (50-day SMA)
• Resistance: 100.65
• Below 100.65, USD still carries bearish momentum

⏱️ 4-Hour Chart – Testing Channel Resistance

• DXY is pushing against the top of a descending channel
• A break above 100.50 could lead to a rally toward 102.00
• Failure here may signal another downturn

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🧠 Summary for DailyForex.pk Readers

• WTI crude oil eyes $80+ as war risk drives supply concerns
• Natural gas breaks above $3.80, heading toward $4.70–$5.00
• US Dollar attempts a recovery, but momentum remains fragile
• Middle East escalation and inventory data are fueling energy price breakouts

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