Oil and Natural Gas Price Forecast: Ceasefire Relief and EIA Inventory Data Support Rebound

WTI crude oil prices recover from sharp losses as the Israel-Iran ceasefire calms markets and U.S. inventory data signals tightening supply. Natural gas weakens but holds near key support.

Oil Market Update – June 26, 2025
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rebounded on Wednesday after posting the sharpest two-day loss since 2022. Following a steep drop earlier this week—driven by easing geopolitical tensions—oil prices stabilized above $65.00, gaining 0.75% intraday. The rebound comes amid technical overselling and fresh signs of tightening U.S. crude supply.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories dropped by 5.836 million barrels—significantly exceeding forecasts of a 0.6 million barrel decline. This marked the fifth straight weekly drawdown, reinforcing market sentiment around strong seasonal demand and tightening supply conditions.

Ceasefire Eases Oil Risk Premium—But Volatility Persists

Oil prices initially declined after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, reducing the geopolitical risk premium. However, lingering concerns over the ceasefire’s durability have prevented a deeper selloff. Traders remain cautious, recognizing that any renewed tensions could rapidly restore upside pressure on oil.

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Daily Chart – Support Holding Above $65

WTI crude is consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Prices remain above the long-term support zone between $63.00 and $66.00, which has acted as a floor in past corrections.

• Resistance Levels: $69.00 and $75.00
• Support Levels: $63.00 and $62.00
  A daily close above $69.00 could clear the path toward $75.00, while a break below $62.00 may trigger renewed bearish pressure.

4-Hour Chart – Descending Broadening Wedge in Focus

On the 4-hour chart, WTI trades within a descending broadening wedge, with resistance met near $77.00—a key technical ceiling. A sustained move below $64.00 could indicate downside continuation, but current price action remains highly sensitive to news flow.

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Natural Gas Technical Outlook

Daily Chart – Bearish Pressure Toward $3.00

Natural gas remains under pressure, hovering near the critical $3.00 support level. The commodity recently closed below its 50-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum.

• Key Support: $3.00, then $2.70
• Resistance: $3.30 and $3.80
  A close below $3.00 could lead to a test of the $2.70 zone, though holding above this level keeps the door open for an upside reversal.

4-Hour Chart – Sideways Movement Continues

On the 4-hour timeframe, natural gas remains in a consolidation range between $3.00 and $3.80. A breakout in either direction will likely dictate the next major price move.

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US Dollar Index (DXY) Weakness Supports Commodities

DXY Daily Chart – Breakdown Below 98

The U.S. Dollar Index has broken below 98.00, pressured by dovish Fed expectations and weaker U.S. economic data. Technical indicators suggest further downside risk, potentially toward 96.00, with a break lower opening the way to 90.00.

DXY 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The dollar continues to trend lower within a descending channel, failing to reclaim the 100.50 resistance. The next key support lies in the 95.00–96.00 region. A breakdown below this zone could accelerate bearish momentum.

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Outlook: Focus on Fed Signals, Geopolitical Risks, and Supply Trends

Oil and natural gas markets remain highly reactive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. While easing Middle East tensions have reduced the immediate risk premium, the ceasefire remains fragile. Combined with ongoing speculation about Federal Reserve interest rate policy, energy prices are likely to remain volatile.

Key Watch Points:

• U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming statements
• Iran-Israel ceasefire developments
• Next week’s EIA inventory data
• Technical breakouts in oil and gas charts

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