April 22, 2025 – DailyForex.pk
Crude oil prices slipped more than 2% on Monday as renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and growing global economic uncertainty triggered a fresh wave of bearish sentiment in energy markets. Traders are also bracing for additional OPEC+ output and weak global demand, as macro pressures continue to weigh on oil’s short-term outlook compared to previous time.
Crude futures failed to break resistance at $64.18 and have since fallen below the $63.06 pivot, suggesting more downside pressure ahead. With oil trading well under its major moving averages, technical indicators support a bearish near-term forecast.
Markets reacted to news that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had made “very good progress” in nuclear discussions, with both sides reportedly working to draft a formal framework. Even without a finalized deal, the prospect of Iranian barrels re-entering the market has begun influencing price action.
This follows recent US sanctions against a Chinese refiner for importing Iranian crude—highlighting the geopolitical stakes tied to any agreement.
Should a deal materialize, Iran could significantly boost global supply, further weighing on prices already struggling with oversupply signals from OPEC+.
Beyond supply dynamics, broader macroeconomic fears are eroding confidence in a sustainable demand rebound.
…are shifting investor preference to safe-haven assets like gold and away from cyclical commodities like crude.
According to IG’s Yeap Jun Rong, “Investors are cautious about pricing in a lasting demand recovery amid rising OPEC+ production and global economic softness.”
Despite mixed compliance from member nations, OPEC+ is moving ahead with its plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day in May. While some producers may trim overages, the net result is still a supply increase at a time when markets are already fragile.
Traders are keeping an eye on how these additional barrels from OPEC+ might coincide with any future Iranian exports, potentially leading to a supply glut if demand doesn’t rebound fast enough.
The combination of:
…suggests further downside for crude oil in the short term. If WTI fails to reclaim $63.06, the next test may be at $59.33, especially if upcoming U.S. PMI data confirms a slowing economy.
Light holiday trading volume on Easter Monday may have amplified the move, but the underlying sentiment remains bearish.
📉 Stay updated on live oil price forecasts, technical analysis, and geopolitical energy news at www.dailyforex.pk — your trusted source for global commodities coverage.
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