Oil Prices Fall Over 2% on Iran Deal Progress, OPEC+ Output, and Economic Concerns

April 22, 2025 – DailyForex.pk
Crude oil prices slipped more than 2% on Monday as renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and growing global economic uncertainty triggered a fresh wave of bearish sentiment in energy markets. Traders are also bracing for additional OPEC+ output and weak global demand, as macro pressures continue to weigh on oil’s short-term outlook compared to previous time.

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📉 Crude Oil Technical Overview: Resistance Holds, Downside Levels Eyed

• Current Price: $62.15 (as of 10:18 GMT)
• Intraday Loss: -$1.86 (-2.91%)
• Resistance: $64.18
• Key Pivot: $63.06
• Support Levels: $59.33
• 50-day MA: $66.85
• 200-day MA: $68.68

Crude futures failed to break resistance at $64.18 and have since fallen below the $63.06 pivot, suggesting more downside pressure ahead. With oil trading well under its major moving averages, technical indicators support a bearish near-term forecast.

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🇮🇷 Iran Nuclear Talks Drive Fresh Supply Concerns

Markets reacted to news that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had made “very good progress” in nuclear discussions, with both sides reportedly working to draft a formal framework. Even without a finalized deal, the prospect of Iranian barrels re-entering the market has begun influencing price action.

This follows recent US sanctions against a Chinese refiner for importing Iranian crude—highlighting the geopolitical stakes tied to any agreement.

Should a deal materialize, Iran could significantly boost global supply, further weighing on prices already struggling with oversupply signals from OPEC+.

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🌍 Economic and Fed Uncertainty Hit Oil Sentiment

Beyond supply dynamics, broader macroeconomic fears are eroding confidence in a sustainable demand rebound.

• Tariff-driven trade tensions,
• Political interference with the Federal Reserve, and
• Concerns over U.S. growth forecasts

…are shifting investor preference to safe-haven assets like gold and away from cyclical commodities like crude.

According to IG’s Yeap Jun Rong, “Investors are cautious about pricing in a lasting demand recovery amid rising OPEC+ production and global economic softness.”

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🛢️ OPEC+ Output Hike Keeps Sellers in Control

Despite mixed compliance from member nations, OPEC+ is moving ahead with its plan to increase production by 411,000 barrels/day in May. While some producers may trim overages, the net result is still a supply increase at a time when markets are already fragile.

Traders are keeping an eye on how these additional barrels from OPEC+ might coincide with any future Iranian exports, potentially leading to a supply glut if demand doesn’t rebound fast enough.

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🔮 Crude Oil Outlook: Bearish Momentum Building Below $63

The combination of:

• Weak technical structure
• Potential Iran supply return
• Increased OPEC+ output
• And macroeconomic headwinds

…suggests further downside for crude oil in the short term. If WTI fails to reclaim $63.06, the next test may be at $59.33, especially if upcoming U.S. PMI data confirms a slowing economy.

Light holiday trading volume on Easter Monday may have amplified the move, but the underlying sentiment remains bearish.

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