Oil and US Dollar Under Pressure While Natural Gas Rebounds: What’s Driving the Trends?

🔻 Oil Slides on Iran Talks and Rising Inventories

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday following fresh developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations. Oman’s foreign minister confirmed a new round of diplomatic talks, which eased fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the waning threat of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities also lowered geopolitical risk premiums.

• WTI crude fell to $61.26
• Brent crude settled around $64.70

In addition to easing geopolitical tensions, bearish U.S. inventory data intensified downside pressure. The EIA reported unexpected builds, with:

• Crude stockpiles up by 1.3 million barrels
• Gasoline up by 800,000 barrels
• Distillates up by 600,000 barrels

These figures suggest slowing demand, and Kazakhstan’s 2% production increase — above OPEC+ targets — has only reinforced the bearish setup.

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🛢 WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook

Daily Chart Overview:

• Price rejected near the 50-day SMA
• Formed a bearish hammer at long-term resistance (orange zone)
• Trading below both 50-day and 200-day SMAs

Key Level to Watch:
A breakdown below $60 would confirm bearish continuation toward $55. Reclaiming $70 is needed to shift the narrative to bullish.

4-Hour Chart Insight:

• Price consolidating within a descending broadening wedge
• Bearish bias remains as long as the price stays under $64

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🔼 Natural Gas Finds Support, Eyes Breakout

Natural gas (NG) has found firm support at the 200-day SMA, rebounding strongly from the $3.00 level. This move suggests renewed bullish interest, though recent price action shows hesitation around the 50-day SMA.

Daily Chart Highlights:

• Price consolidating between $3.00 and $5.00
• $3.00 remains a critical support base
• A break above $3.80 could open the door to $4.70

4-Hour Chart Highlights:

• Current consolidation between $3.00 and $3.80
• Breakout above $4.70 would confirm bullish continuation
• Drop below $3.00 could send NG to $2.70

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💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) Weakens on Failed Resistance Test

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to exhibit bearish pressure, with technical patterns aligning with a potential deeper correction. Despite a rebound from the 98 support zone, the index failed to sustain gains above the 50-day SMA at 102.

Daily Chart:

• Inverted head and shoulders in play
• Price rejected from 102, triggering a potential decline
• A breakdown below 98 could lead DXY toward the 90 zone

4-Hour Chart:

• Trading inside a descending channel
• Rejection from 101.60, near channel resistance
• Bearish continuation likely toward 98, possibly lower

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🔍 Summary: Market Sentiment Leans Bearish for Oil and USD

Asset	Bias	Key Support	Key Resistance
WTI Crude	Bearish	$60 → $55	$64 → $70
Natural Gas	Bullish	$3.00	$3.80 → $4.70
US Dollar	Bearish	98 → 90	102

Market focus now shifts to:

• Further developments in U.S.-Iran talks
• Inventory data updates
• Global risk sentiment and inflation expectations
• Fed commentary that may influence the US Dollar’s trajectory

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