Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar Outlook: Economic Data and Trade Talks Shape Currency Movements

The Japanese Yen (JPY) and Australian Dollar (AUD) are experiencing significant fluctuations as recent economic indicators and international trade discussions influence investor sentiment.

Japan’s Economic Contraction Raises Concerns Over BoJ Policy

Japan’s economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking its first decline in a year and exceeding market expectations of a 0.1% drop. This downturn is attributed to stagnant private consumption and a 0.6% decrease in exports, highlighting the nation’s vulnerability to external economic pressures. Reuters+1Reuters+1

The unexpected contraction has led economists to speculate that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may delay any interest rate hikes. A recent Reuters poll indicates that 95% of economists expect the BoJ to maintain its current rate of 0.50% in the upcoming June meeting.

USD/JPY Dynamics: Awaiting U.S. Consumer Sentiment Data

The USD/JPY pair is under scrutiny as traders anticipate the release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. A higher-than-expected reading could bolster the U.S. dollar, pushing the pair above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) towards the May 12 high of 148.647. Conversely, a lower reading may reignite recession fears, potentially driving the pair down to the 142.5 support level.

Australian Dollar Reacts to U.S.-China Trade Developments

The Australian Dollar remains sensitive to developments in U.S.-China trade relations. Recent negotiations in Geneva have led to a 90-day truce, with both nations agreeing to reduce tariffs significantly. The U.S. has lowered tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced its tariffs from 125% to 10%. MitradeWikipedia+5New York Post+5The Times of India+5The Australian+1New York Post+1

This easing of trade tensions has provided temporary support to the AUD. However, the currency’s future trajectory will depend on the outcome of ongoing trade talks and China’s economic policies, including potential stimulus measures to counteract tariff impacts.

AUD/USD Outlook: Balancing Domestic Data and Global Factors

Domestically, Australia’s labor market showed resilience with a better-than-expected jobs report, leading to a 96% probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the upcoming meeting. However, the RBA’s future policy decisions will likely be influenced by global trade dynamics and China’s economic performance.

The AUD/USD pair is currently navigating between the 50-day EMA support at $0.63623 and the 200-day EMA resistance near $0.65144. A decisive move beyond these levels will depend on upcoming economic data releases and developments in international trade relations.

---

Stay informed with the latest forex news and analysis at www.dailyforex.pk.