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Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Outlook: USD/JPY Slips as Traders Await Japan Trade Data, AUD/USD Eyes Wage Growth

The forex market begins the week with investors closely watching both the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD), as critical economic data releases from Japan and Australia could dictate short-term price direction. The USD/JPY pair slipped slightly, while AUD/USD remains sensitive to wage growth data that could shape Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy expectations.

Japan Trade Data in Focus: Impact on USD/JPY

Japan’s trade figures, due this week, are expected to show a 2.1% year-on-year decline in exports for July alongside a steep 10.1% drop in imports.

A sharp fall in exports could reflect the early impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, weakening external demand and raising doubts about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ability to continue tightening policy.
Conversely, a surprise rise in exports could signal resilience in trade and fuel speculation of a more hawkish BoJ stance, strengthening the Yen.

Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in Q2 2025 (after 0.1% in Q1), but its reliance on external demand means trade weakness could derail momentum. Traders are keeping USD/JPY tied to these trade dynamics, with additional focus on upcoming Fed speeches and FOMC minutes that could sway rate-cut expectations.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

The pair currently trades under pressure, hovering around key technical levels:

Bearish Scenario: Stronger Japanese trade data or dovish Fed signals could push USD/JPY lower, targeting the 50-day EMA and the 145.00 support zone.
Bullish Scenario: Weaker trade data combined with hawkish Fed commentary could lift USD/JPY above the 200-day EMA, opening the path toward 149.35 resistance.

Traders are balancing BoJ’s cautious approach with the Fed’s evolving stance, leaving USD/JPY highly sensitive to both economic data and central bank rhetoric.

Aussie Dollar (AUD/USD) Eyes Wage Growth Data

The Australian Dollar’s immediate driver is wage growth data, a key gauge for inflation and RBA policy decisions.

Stronger wage growth could boost household spending and inflation expectations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term RBA rate cut and supporting AUD/USD.
Weaker wages may reignite dovish expectations, sending the pair lower as markets price in further policy easing.

Economists highlight a 0.9% monthly rise in wages in March and a 5.8% annual increase, though the most recent Wage Price Index showed slower momentum at 0.8% in Q2. Analysts such as AMP’s Shane Oliver still expect multiple RBA cuts through 2026, but upcoming data could challenge that outlook.

AUD/USD Technical Levels to Watch

Bearish Setup: A soft wage report or dovish RBA outlook could send AUD/USD below 0.6450 support, exposing the critical 0.6400 level.
Bullish Setup: Stronger wage growth or hawkish guidance may push AUD/USD above the 200-day EMA, with potential to test the 50-day EMA.

China also remains a wildcard: the PBoC’s loan prime rate decision could indirectly affect the Aussie, given Australia’s heavy trade exposure to China.

Market Drivers to Watch This Week

USD/JPY: Japan’s trade data and Fed commentary.
AUD/USD: Australian wage growth and RBA signals, plus China’s loan rate stance.
Both pairs: FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium updates.

📌 Bottom Line for Traders

The Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar are entering a critical week, with Japan’s trade data and Australia’s wage growth report set to dictate near-term direction for USD/JPY and AUD/USD. Traders should monitor technical levels closely, as both pairs remain trapped between major support and resistance zones ahead of Fed policy guidance.

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Yasher Rizwan