Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Approaches Critical Support as Volatility Builds

Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, testing key support near $3,311 and the 50-day moving average (MA), following an outside-day bearish reversal. Despite the dip, the metal closed above the 50-day MA, hinting that underlying bullish strength remains—at least for now.

Technical Outlook: Compressed Range Signals Imminent Move

• Gold’s recent price action is forming a narrowing range, with resistance capped around the 20-day MA at $3,348 for three consecutive sessions.
• Thursday’s price reversal, following a weak close and failed breakout above a short-term trendline, raises caution. A break below Tuesday’s low of $3,301 would re-enter gold beneath the reclaimed trendline—a bearish signal.
• On the upside, a breakout above $3,366 (Thursday’s high) would open the door toward $3,396, and potentially a retest of the $3,451 swing high.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Resistance: $3,366, $3,396, $3,451
• Support: $3,301, 50-day MA (~$3,311), Rising trendline

Momentum & Volatility Outlook:

Gold has struggled with momentum since peaking at $3,451 on June 2. Still, the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs—now at their narrowest spread since January—suggests a potential volatility spike is imminent.

If support holds, it could mirror early June’s bullish bounce, which saw gold rally sharply over three days. However, a failure at $3,301 could accelerate bearish pressure.

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