Gold (XAU/USD) Consolidates Near Triangle Support as Silver Eyes Breakout Above $37

Key Takeaways:

Gold consolidates within an ascending triangle amid strong U.S. labor data.
Silver maintains bullish momentum after holding above $35, eyeing a breakout above $37.
USD Index shows limited rebound potential as bearish technical patterns persist.

Gold Market Overview (XAU/USD)

Gold prices remain range-bound following a stronger-than-expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which showed 147,000 jobs added—surpassing expectations and aligning with the 12-month average. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, defying projections of a rise, reducing near-term expectations of a July Fed rate cut.

This robust labor data weakens the argument for immediate monetary easing, capping gold’s upside. However, conflicting data from the ADP private payroll report—which revealed a surprise decline of 33,000 jobs—casts some doubt over the labor market’s consistency. Such uncertainty may revive safe-haven demand for gold.

Additional support stems from political risks. Delays surrounding approval of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” and ongoing tariff tensions—particularly with Vietnam—are creating market unease. These factors could enhance gold’s appeal as a hedge against volatility.

Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Chart – Ascending Triangle Consolidation

Gold remains within an ascending triangle, signaling potential for breakout-driven volatility. Price corrected lower post-NFP but rebounded from support, holding above the 50-day SMA—indicating continued bullish undercurrents.

4-Hour Chart – Inverted Head and Shoulders

The pair trades within a $3,250–$3,430 range. An inverted head-and-shoulders pattern has formed above $3,250, suggesting a bullish continuation toward the $3,400–$3,500 zone. The RSI remains neutral, supporting a short-term consolidation phase before a breakout.

Silver Technical Analysis (XAG/USD)

Daily Chart – Bullish Formation Above $35

Silver continues to develop a rounded bullish pattern above the $35 mark. A completed Adam and Eve formation and recent consolidation between $31.60 and $33.60, followed by a breakout past $35, support a strong upside case. A push above $37 could initiate the next leg toward $40.

4-Hour Chart – Building Bullish Momentum

Silver is forming a solid base above the $35.30–$36.80 zone. A clear break above $37.00 would confirm the continuation of the upward trend. RSI support at the 30 level also reinforces the potential for a bullish breakout.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

Daily Chart – Rebound Faces Resistance

The Dollar Index rebounded modestly after touching oversold RSI levels. However, bearish head-and-shoulders structure and continued resistance below the 50-day SMA suggest the upside is likely limited.

4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel Intact

The index remains in a descending channel, with current price action trapped below the 100.50 level. The rebound is shallow and risks being reversed, likely resuming bearish momentum in the near term.

Conclusion

Gold’s consolidation within the ascending triangle hints at growing breakout pressure, while silver’s technical setup signals readiness for a sharp upside move above $37. Despite temporary support from labor data, the broader backdrop of political risk and diverging employment signals may keep precious metals in favor. Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s rebound looks technically fragile, supporting the case for further gains in gold and silver if uncertainty persists.

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Yasher Rizwan