Gold and Silver Price Analysis – Triangle Breakdown Signals Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Support in Focus

Gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD) face renewed selling pressure this week as both precious metals react to strong U.S. economic data, central bank signals, and intensifying global trade tensions. Despite a modest rebound in gold, technical patterns suggest further correction may follow before a potential recovery later in 2025.

📉 Gold Price Slips Below Triangle Support – What’s Next?

Spot gold slipped below the critical $3,270 support on Wednesday, extending its decline from the $3,450 resistance zone. The move was triggered by robust U.S. macro data and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady. However, the decline was cushioned by renewed safe-haven demand and trade-related uncertainty, allowing prices to bounce back above $3,300.

Traders are now closely watching the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, set to be released Friday, which is expected to guide the next directional move in gold.

Additional pressure came from the June Core PCE Price Index, which rose by 0.3%—the biggest monthly increase in four months—signaling sticky inflation, though largely in line with forecasts. Meanwhile, looming tariff deadlines and potential geopolitical rifts are pushing investors back into gold as a hedge.

📊 Gold ETF inflows and steady central bank purchases continue to support the longer-term bullish narrative for gold.

🟡 Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Chart:
Gold has broken down from a long-standing ascending triangle and is now approaching the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If the $3,230 level fails to hold, the next critical support zones lie near $3,150 and $3,000. Despite near-term weakness, the broader uptrend remains intact, and a bottom may form by year-end.

4-Hour Chart:
Gold is consolidating between $3,230 and $3,300. A decisive breakdown below $3,230 could open the door for a decline toward $3,050. Failure to break back above $3,450 would keep sellers in control.

⚪ Silver Technical Analysis – Healthy Correction or Deeper Pullback?

Silver (XAG/USD) faced resistance at $39.50 and has since entered a corrective phase. The price is currently retreating toward the 50-day SMA, with potential support in the $34–$36 range.

Daily Chart:
Silver is correcting from overbought territory. If $36 breaks, watch for a deeper move toward $34–$35, which could attract fresh buyers and fuel another rally toward the $40–$42 target zone.

4-Hour Chart:
Silver is nearing a key short-term support area. The overall trend remains bullish, and signs of a rebound are emerging. A bounce from the $34.50–$35 area could resume the uptrend.

💵 US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook

The US Dollar Index remains firm after breaking above its 50-day SMA, driven by strong economic resilience and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.

Daily Chart:
DXY is targeting resistance at 100.50. A breakout could lift the index toward 102.00, which may add further downward pressure on gold and silver.

4-Hour Chart:
An inverted head and shoulders pattern is forming, suggesting a bullish reversal. A clear breakout above 100.50 would confirm the structure and signal further USD strength.

🔎 Key Takeaways for Traders – What to Watch

Gold remains vulnerable below $3,310 but is supported by trade tensions and ETF inflows.
Silver correction offers a potential dip-buying opportunity around $35.
US Dollar strength may cap precious metal gains in the short term.
All eyes on Friday’s NFP data, which could trigger a sharp move in both gold and silver.

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Yasher Rizwan