Gold Price Rebounds Above 100-Day SMA as Dollar Rally Stalls Post-Fed Decision

Key Takeaways:

• Gold bounces back from one-month lows amid softer USD
• Fed maintains hawkish stance, limiting upside for gold
• Traders await US Core PCE inflation data for next market move

Gold Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) recovered modestly in Thursday’s Asian session, rebounding from a one-month low near $3,270 after finding support at its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The recovery comes as the US Dollar paused its post-Fed surge to a two-month high, triggering dip-buying interest in the yellow metal.

Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision — to keep rates steady for the fifth straight meeting — was accompanied by a hawkish tone. Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered no forward guidance on a September rate cut, dampening expectations for near-term easing. Despite this, the USD showed signs of consolidation, giving gold some breathing room.

Why Gold Is Struggling to Rally Further:
While gold is benefitting from a temporarily weaker dollar and cautious risk sentiment, upside momentum remains constrained. The Fed’s firm stance, along with strong US macro data — including a 3.0% Q2 GDP growth and a solid ADP jobs report — continues to support the greenback. This limits the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold in the short term.

Market focus now shifts to Thursday’s release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The outcome could significantly influence the USD and shape gold’s next direction.

Technical Outlook:

• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies near $3,309–$3,310. A break above this may trigger a short squeeze toward $3,325–$3,326.
• Support Levels: Key support is seen around $3,275–$3,270 (100-day SMA). A break below could expose June’s low near $3,248 and even the $3,200 psychological zone.

Bottom Line:
Gold’s recovery may be short-lived unless the upcoming inflation data revives dovish Fed expectations. For now, traders are likely to remain cautious, with the $3,310 level acting as a ceiling unless a decisive bullish trigger emerges.

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