Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds Above $3,300 After Hitting Weekly Low

Gold (XAU/USD) prices slipped early Monday, falling below the critical $3,300 mark to hit a one-week low, as bearish sentiment extended for the third consecutive session. However, the yellow metal found strong buying interest at the lower levels, staging a recovery in the Asian and early European sessions.

This rebound comes as the US Dollar weakens and geopolitical uncertainty lingers—factors that are helping to cushion gold’s downside, despite reduced expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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US Jobs Data Triggers Hawkish Repricing on Fed Rate Outlook

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report beat expectations, showing a 139K increase in jobs versus the forecasted 130K. Although the data was lower than the previous month’s revised figure, it was enough to cool rate-cut hopes for 2025. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while wage growth surprised to the upside at 3.9% YoY.

In response, market participants dialed back expectations for near-term Fed cuts, keeping US Treasury yields elevated. This initially pressured gold prices, as higher yields typically reduce demand for non-yielding assets like gold.

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Safe-Haven Demand Remains Supported by Fiscal and Geopolitical Risks

Despite the hawkish shift in rate expectations, safe-haven demand for gold remains intact due to:

• Ongoing US fiscal concerns, particularly related to debt sustainability.
• Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
• US-China trade negotiations kicking off in London today.

US President Trump’s renewed call for a 100 basis point rate cut and a “very positive” update from a recent call with Chinese President Xi Jinping may influence market sentiment in the short term.

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Gold Technical Analysis: Can Bulls Regain $3,400?

On the 4-hour chart, gold remains above the 200-SMA, showing resilience below $3,300. Bears are cautious without a confirmed breakdown below this psychological support level.

Immediate support zones:

• $3,283–$3,282 (recent lows)
• $3,246–$3,245 (May 29 swing low)
• $3,200 (key psychological level)

Resistance to watch:

• $3,352–$3,353 (horizontal resistance)
• $3,378 (multi-session high)
• $3,400 (psychological round number)
• $3,425–$3,430 (breakout zone)
• $3,500 (all-time high from April)

A confirmed close above $3,378 would be a bullish breakout signal, possibly triggering a retest of the $3,400–$3,430 zone.

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Outlook: Mixed Forces Keep Gold Traders on Edge

Gold prices are caught between opposing forces:

• Hawkish Fed outlook and strong US labor market act as headwinds.
• Weaker dollar, US fiscal instability, and geopolitical risks offer bullish undercurrents.

As traders await outcomes from the US-China trade talks, gold could remain volatile in the coming sessions. A decisive move—either below $3,300 or above $3,378—may set the direction for the next leg.

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📌 Conclusion

The gold market remains in a tug-of-war between bearish Fed signals and bullish safe-haven demand. Traders should watch key levels around $3,300 and the unfolding global events for the next major move in XAU/USD.

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