Gold Price Forecast – XAU/USD Risks Steeper Decline After Bearish Pattern Breakdown

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure once again after breaking below a critical support zone, raising the possibility of a deeper correction toward the $3,072–$3,041 range.

Key Highlights:

• Gold fails to hold above $3,310, confirming a bear pennant breakdown.
• Price now trades below the 50-day moving average; 200-day MA near $3,003 in focus.
• Downside targets include the $3,072 Fibonacci projection and $3,041 50% retracement level.
• Bulls need a recovery above $3,334 to regain control.

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Bearish Pattern Confirmed as Gold Slips Below Support

Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Thursday, peaking at $3,274 and dipping to $3,315. Importantly, the session tested former support at $3,310 — now acting as resistance after a confirmed breakdown from a bearish pennant structure. This failure to reclaim old support reinforces bearish momentum, suggesting further losses could lie ahead.

The invalidation of a bull pennant pattern this week has shifted short-term market sentiment. Such formations typically suggest trend continuation, so a downside break implies that the recent uptrend may have run out of steam. Now trading below the 50-day moving average, gold faces growing downside pressure, with the 200-day MA at $3,003 emerging as a longer-term support level.

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Target Zone: $3,072 – $3,041

Technical indicators point toward the $3,072–$3,041 region as the next major support. The $3,072 level aligns with a projected ABCD correction pattern, while $3,041 marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the April record high of $3,500. A move into this zone could provide a key test of bullish resilience.

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What Could Invalidate the Bearish Case?

For gold bulls to reclaim control, XAU/USD must close above $3,334 on a sustained basis. Until then, momentum favors the bears. Adding to the downside bias, both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are converging and trending lower, indicating building resistance overhead.

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Weekly Chart Adds to Bearish Outlook

From a broader perspective, gold’s weekly chart is also flashing red. A bearish shooting star candlestick formed earlier this week, leading to a multi-week low of $3,268. With gold potentially closing lower for a third consecutive week, bearish control remains intact.

That said, gold has touched the 20-week moving average for the first time since January — a level that previously served as a strong base for rebounds. This could give rise to a near-term bounce, even if the overall structure remains vulnerable.

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Conclusion

Gold is at a crossroads after a failed continuation pattern and rising technical resistance. A further slide toward $3,072–$3,041 is likely if momentum remains bearish. However, traders should keep a close eye on the $3,334 level, as a breakout above could flip the outlook in favor of the bulls.

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