Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Signals Emerge as XAU/USD Eyes 50-Day MA Support

Gold (XAU/USD) is under pressure once again, with recent technical patterns suggesting the potential for a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average. Despite holding short-term support, bearish momentum is beginning to reassert itself.

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Key Highlights:

• Gold holds near the 20-day moving average but struggles to reclaim key resistance.
• A breakdown below $3,293 could open the door to the 50-day MA at $3,265.
• Bearish weekly candlestick and trendline rejection suggest further downside risk.

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Technical Overview: XAU/USD Bears Reassert Control

Gold prices managed to hold above the 20-day moving average ($3,303) for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, bouncing after testing a minor trendline resistance at $3,349. However, the failure to close above Monday’s high of $3,338 raises concerns. Price action now suggests the formation of a doji candlestick, indicating market indecision—often a precursor to reversal when it appears near key resistance levels.

The rejection at the trendline, previously acting as dynamic support, strengthens the short-term bearish case. If prices fall below Monday’s low of $3,293, it may confirm a continuation of the current pullback, potentially accelerating downside momentum.

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Downside Targets: 50-Day MA and $3,245 Swing Low

A break below $3,293 puts the 50-day moving average—currently around $3,265—in immediate focus. Historically, this level has acted as a strong support during the past two corrective waves. If gold fails to stabilize at this moving average, the next key support lies near $3,245, which marks a recent swing low.

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Bearish Weekly Candle Adds to Downside Pressure

Adding weight to the bearish outlook is last week’s shooting star candlestick pattern, a classic bearish reversal signal. With the weekly close near the low of the candle and price now hovering just above last week’s low of $3,296, a sustained move below this level could trigger more aggressive selling.

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Resistance Levels to Watch: $3,338 and $3,375

On the upside, bulls need to reclaim and hold above $3,338 to invalidate near-term bearish pressure. Even then, Friday’s high of $3,375 marks a stronger resistance zone. A break above this level would confirm renewed bullish strength and potentially set up a move back toward the $3,400+ region.

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Outlook: Bears in Control Unless Key Levels Reclaimed

Unless gold closes convincingly above $3,338 or reclaims the trendline near $3,349, the technical setup favors the bears. A break below $3,293 could accelerate the correction toward $3,265 and $3,245 in the coming days.

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