Gold Price Forecast: Natixis Projects $4,000 Amid Declining Confidence in U.S. Dollar Assets

As global economic uncertainties mount, gold continues to assert its position as a premier safe-haven asset. Bernard Dahdah, a seasoned commodity analyst at Natixis, forecasts that gold prices could ascend to $4,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by diminishing trust in U.S. dollar-denominated assets and escalating geopolitical tensions.​

Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Gold Outlook

1. Erosion of Confidence in U.S. Dollar and Treasuries

Recent data indicates significant outflows from U.S. money market funds (MMFs), with a notable $125 billion withdrawal in mid-April—the largest since the 2008 financial crisis. This trend suggests a growing skepticism among investors regarding the safety of U.S. Treasuries, traditionally considered secure investments. Dahdah emphasizes that as the perceived stability of the U.S. dollar wanes, gold’s appeal as an alternative reserve asset strengthens.​

2. Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies

President Donald Trump’s recent adjustments to trade tariffs, including a base 10% duty on all imports and a potential reduction of the 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, have introduced volatility into global markets. While these moves aim to ease trade tensions, uncertainties persist, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold.​

3. Robust Demand from China

China’s appetite for gold remains strong, as evidenced by the Shanghai gold premium reaching a record $137 per ounce amid trade disputes. Although the premium has moderated to around $62, it remains significantly above the 15-year average of $5, indicating sustained demand. Dahdah notes that Chinese purchasing patterns continue to exert considerable influence on global gold prices.​

Technical Support and Price Projections

Despite recent price corrections, gold has established a solid support level around $3,000 per ounce. Dahdah suggests that continued outflows from U.S. MMFs and potential reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings by countries like China could reinforce this support, paving the way for prices to reach $4,000. He anticipates an average gold price of $3,150 for 2025, with a potential rise to $3,360 in 2026.​Reuters+2Trustable Gold+2MINING.COM+2

Comparative Analyst Forecasts

Other financial institutions share a bullish outlook on gold:​

• JPMorgan: Projects gold prices to average $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and surpass $4,000 by Q2 2026, citing strong investor and central bank demand. ​Nai500+3Reuters+3MINING.COM+3
• Goldman Sachs: Revised its 2025 year-end forecast to $3,700, with potential peaks up to $4,500 under certain scenarios. ​Reuters+1markets.businessinsider.com+1
• UBS and Bank of America: Both set a 2025 gold price target of $3,500, attributing their forecasts to escalating tariff uncertainties and geopolitical risks. ​markets.businessinsider.com

Conclusion

As economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist, gold’s role as a safe-haven asset becomes increasingly prominent. Investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many anticipating that gold prices could reach new heights in the coming years.​

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