Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Steady as Focus Shifts from Geopolitics to Fed Policy

Gold prices held firm on Wednesday as investor attention pivoted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to the upcoming decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The XAU/USD pair showed resilience, stabilizing despite the easing of safe-haven demand after the Israel-Iran ceasefire.

📊 Gold Futures Update
August gold futures settled at $2,347.00, gaining $8.60 on the day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index weakened by 0.23%, falling to 97.74, offering additional support to the metal.

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🔍 Geopolitical Risks Ease, But Gold Remains Strong

The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran helped defuse major geopolitical tensions. Normally, such developments would lower gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. However, gold defied expectations, maintaining upward momentum — suggesting that institutional and retail investors are buying into gold for reasons beyond crisis protection.

This shift in sentiment points to a more strategic positioning among traders. With geopolitical risks temporarily sidelined, the primary driver of gold prices has now become monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

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🏦 All Eyes on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony

Investor focus is now squarely on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress. Following his earlier remarks to the House Financial Services Committee, Powell’s second appearance before the Senate Banking Committee is being closely analyzed for any clues on upcoming interest rate moves.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 24.8% probability of a rate cut in July, as traders weigh the Fed’s response to soft economic data, elevated inflation, and political pressures.

While Powell signaled a cautious stance on rate cuts — citing the need to assess the broader impact of tariffs on inflation and economic growth — political tensions continue to build. Some Republican senators have criticized the Fed’s “data-driven” approach, accusing it of potential bias amid rising tariff-driven inflation concerns.

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📈 Gold Price Outlook: Institutional Demand Grows

Despite easing geopolitical fears, gold prices are benefiting from:

✅ A weaker U.S. Dollar
✅ Lower Treasury yields
✅ Increased institutional demand
✅ Uncertainty around future Fed policy decisions

Technical patterns also reflect robust support for XAU/USD. The metal’s ability to stay above $2,300 — even after a ceasefire that typically reduces safe-haven demand — signals strong underlying buying interest.

Investors are now viewing gold not just as a crisis hedge but as a long-term inflation and currency debasement hedge, especially in a landscape where the Fed could be forced to adopt a more accommodative stance.

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🔮 What’s Next for Gold Prices?

As of now, monetary policy direction remains the key catalyst for gold’s next move. If Powell or other Fed officials hint at dovish shifts in upcoming speeches, it could trigger another leg higher in XAU/USD. Conversely, any strong signals of policy tightening could cap gains in the near term.

Key Support Levels:

• $2,320
• $2,300

Key Resistance Levels:

• $2,365
• $2,385
• $2,400

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📌 Conclusion

Gold markets are entering a new phase where macroeconomic factors outweigh geopolitical triggers. With inflation still sticky and the U.S. dollar under pressure, gold remains well-supported. The Fed’s next move, especially in light of political and economic uncertainties, will likely determine whether XAU/USD continues its upward trajectory or enters a consolidation phase.

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