Gold Rally Faces Resistance: Citi Predicts Drop Below $3,000 by Year-End, Bullish on Silver Surge

Gold’s explosive rise in 2025, which has seen prices soar nearly 30%, is beginning to draw some bearish caution from major institutions. While many analysts continue to float $4,000 per ounce targets, Citigroup is striking a different tone—forecasting a sharp cooldown in the months ahead.

In a recent commodities outlook, Citigroup analysts revised their gold projections downward, cautioning investors that prices could dip below $3,000 per ounce before the year closes. The bank slashed its 0–3 month target to $3,300 (down from $3,500) and adjusted its 6–12 month forecast from $3,000 to $2,800 per ounce.

At present, spot gold remains near $3,370, suggesting Citi’s forecast implies a potential 16% decline from current levels.

📉 What’s Driving Citi’s Bearish Gold Outlook?

Citi believes that gold’s safe-haven appeal may gradually diminish heading into 2026, especially as economic growth prospects improve and political stability increases in the U.S.

“We expect gold investment demand to taper off in late 2025 and 2026,” Citi analysts noted, pointing to factors like rising U.S. growth and former President Trump’s strengthening political position ahead of the midterms.

The broader economic mood is also shifting. While risks remain, optimism is growing around a soft landing for the U.S. economy, potentially avoiding recession and keeping inflation under control—both factors that reduce the urgency to hold gold.

📊 Fed Rate Cuts Could Curb Gold’s Momentum

A key element in Citi’s forecast is U.S. monetary policy. The bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, supporting growth and reducing the need for gold as a hedge.

That said, Citi outlines two possible scenarios:

✅ Bullish Scenario (20% chance): If geopolitical tensions spike or trade uncertainty increases, gold could climb back above $3,500 by Q3 2025.

❌ Bearish Scenario (20% chance): If global tensions ease and the trade war de-escalates, prices may fall below $3,000.

💰 Silver Shines as Citi’s Favorite in Precious Metals

Despite its bearish stance on gold, Citigroup is optimistic about silver. The bank forecasts that silver could climb to $40 per ounce in the next 6–12 months, driven by tightening supply and sustained industrial demand.

In its most optimistic outlook, silver could rally to $46 per ounce by Q3 2025, especially if global trade disputes are resolved quickly.

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