Gold Prices May Drop 10% by Year-End as Geopolitical Risks Ease – Standard Chartered

📉 Standard Chartered: Gold Rally May Be Nearing Its Peak

Gold prices, which have surged more than 40% over the past year, may be nearing a turning point, according to Suki Cooper, Precious Metals Analyst at Standard Chartered. Despite multiple tailwinds—central bank buying, ETF inflows, and safe-haven demand—Cooper believes the market could see a 10% decline before the end of 2025.

Speaking to Bloomberg Television, Cooper outlined why gold has remained so resilient and why that trend might fade in the coming months.

---

🏦 What’s Fueling Gold’s Rally in 2025?

Cooper noted that the foundation of this rally was laid back in 2022, when central banks ramped up gold buying. That support held prices firmly and created a platform for the next leg up.

However, the key shift this year has been a surge in ETF inflows—especially from Asia. Unlike previous rallies that were primarily driven by U.S. and European investors, the current move has seen new demand out of China, changing the dynamics of the market.

“It took five years to stay above $2,000, but just weeks to hold above $3,000,” she said. “That shows how strong and multi-layered the drivers are.”

---

🧭 Diverse Drivers Keep Prices Elevated—For Now

According to Cooper, gold’s strength is no longer tied solely to traditional metrics like real yields. Instead, it’s being driven by a mix of factors:

• Recession fears
• Tariff and trade war risks
• Persistent geopolitical tensions
• Central bank diversification strategies

The convergence of these elements has allowed gold to decouple from equity volatility and gain traction as a true safe-haven asset.

---

📊 Is the Gold Market Overcrowded?

Despite its explosive gains, Cooper doesn’t believe the gold trade is overcrowded yet. She pointed to:

• Tactical positioning near February 2024 lows
• ETF holdings still 400 tonnes below their 2020 peak
• Central bank purchases coming from multiple regions, not just one source

“It’s a structural shift, not a short-term trend,” she emphasized. “Central banks are buying gold for strategic reasons—whether for reserve diversification or geopolitical insulation.”

---

🔮 Standard Chartered Gold Forecast: Correction Ahead?

Despite all the bullish drivers, Cooper sees potential for a 10% pullback in gold before 2025 ends. The reasons?

• A strengthening U.S. Dollar could weigh on gold demand
• Easing geopolitical risks, particularly if tensions between global powers fade
• A shift toward stimulus-driven risk appetite in the U.S.

“If stimulus measures gain traction and geopolitical risks start to unwind, gold may stabilize above $3,000 but lose its upward momentum,” Cooper noted.

She added that while rate cuts could deliver a surprise boost, the base case is a cooling rally—not a collapse.

Stay Updated With Daily Forex Pakistan.