Gold Price Analysis – Bullish Momentum Strengthens as US Dollar Declines

Date: August 5, 2025
Trend Outlook: Bullish
Gold Price Range Today:

Support Levels: $3355 • $3330 • $3240
Resistance Levels: $3388 • $3410 • $3460

📈 Gold Climbs on USD Weakness and Rate Cut Bets

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm near $3373 per ounce after testing resistance at $3382. The metal has gained for three straight sessions, recovering sharply from recent lows around $3268, driven largely by renewed pressure on the US Dollar and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

Friday’s session marked the biggest single-day rally in two months, signaling a strong return of bullish sentiment among traders.

🔍 Why Is Gold Rising Again?

Disappointing US jobs data showed non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 jobs in July, far below expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below 99, reflecting broad weakness against major currencies.
Markets are now pricing in an 81% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Additionally, President Donald Trump announced new tariffs (10%–41%) on imports from dozens of countries, increasing global economic uncertainty.

These factors have reignited safe-haven demand for gold and pushed the market back into bullish territory.

📊 Technical Outlook: Momentum Indicators Turning Positive

The 14-day RSI has risen to 54, moving away from the neutral midline and signaling further upside potential before entering overbought levels.
The MACD indicator is also curving upward, supporting a near-term bullish continuation.

If bullish momentum persists, gold may test the psychological $3400 resistance level, with a potential breakout targeting $3460.

⚠️ Gold Trading Signals for Today (05/08/2025)

✅ Sell Entry: Near resistance at $3400, with target at $3290, stop-loss at $3440
✅ Buy Entry: From support at $3310, targeting $3390, with stop-loss at $3290

💡 Trading Strategy & Tips

Traders are advised to buy on dips, especially near support zones, but avoid excessive risk.
Carefully monitor developments in the US labor market, Fed commentary, and tariff policy, as they remain key drivers for gold.

🏦 Dollar Decline Deepens on Fed Pivot Expectations

The Fed is expected to cut rates, with more than 63 bps of easing priced in by year-end.
Trump’s dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner has added to market unease, citing manipulation of employment data.
US 10-year Treasury yields dropped to a three-month low of 4.20%, confirming weaker growth outlooks and supporting gold prices.
The Treasury has also announced expanded buyback programs, further pressuring yields.

📌 Conclusion: Gold Positioned for Further Gains

With the US Dollar weakening, bond yields falling, and market uncertainty rising, gold remains in a favorable technical and fundamental setup. A sustained move above $3388–$3400 could open the path to new monthly highs, while dips toward $3330–$3355 are expected to attract strong buying interest.

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Yasher Rizwan