Gold Forecast 2025: CIBC Projects $3,600 by Year-End Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand

• CIBC raises its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,339 average, with a year-end target of $3,600.
• Analysts cite macro uncertainty, tariff impacts, and Fed policy as key bullish factors.
• Silver also expected to climb, but not break $40 until 2026.

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Gold’s rally may be on pause, but according to analysts at CIBC, the second half of 2025 holds strong upside potential. In a bullish revision released Tuesday, the Canadian bank significantly raised its gold price outlook, citing safe-haven demand, central bank buying, and continued geopolitical uncertainty.

CIBC now expects gold to average $3,339 an ounce this year—an increase of over 19% from its previous forecast. By year-end, the bank sees gold reaching $3,600, with prices expected to remain elevated into 2026.

“We continue to favor gold’s technical structure… Our analysis points to a trajectory toward $3,700–$3,800 with consolidations above $3,175,” the report stated.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Drivers

CIBC analysts emphasized that gold’s bullish case is underpinned by multiple factors:

• Tariff Policy Uncertainty: Despite progress on trade agreements with China, the UK, and Vietnam, many global trade disputes remain unresolved. The resulting uncertainty, especially around U.S. tariffs, is expected to weigh on global growth and inflation expectations.
• U.S. Consumer Pressure: The analysts believe the full impact of tariffs has yet to be reflected in U.S. consumer purchasing power, which may support continued demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
• Federal Reserve Outlook: With energy prices cooling and economic data showing slower growth, CIBC expects the Fed to eventually cut interest rates. “We believe it’s a question of ‘when and how fast,’ not ‘if’,” the bank noted.

Inflation and Dollar Trends Supporting Gold

Although the June CPI report showed inflation rising more slowly than expected, traders continue to price in a potential rate cut by September. Meanwhile, de-dollarization remains a key long-term trend driving central banks to increase gold reserves.

“In the back half of 2025, gold will continue to serve as a tool for wealth preservation… Central banks are actively shifting away from U.S. dollar assets,” analysts added.

Silver Outlook: Bullish, But Slower Path to $40

CIBC is also optimistic about silver’s trajectory but sees a slower climb. While silver has shown signs of a breakout, analysts believe the $40+ levels will not be reached until 2026.

“Silver’s technicals look strong from a tactical view, with a breakout path toward $40.56 and even $43.50, though likely delayed until next year,” the report said.

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Bottom Line

With inflation risks, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies all converging, CIBC believes gold is entering its “second act” in 2025. The updated forecast of $3,600 by year-end and a longer-term bullish channel extending to $3,800 underscores the metal’s appeal as a hedge in an increasingly uncertain global economy.

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